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Eagles vs Patriots Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Aug 24, 2023

The Eagles come into 2023 looking to avenge their 2022 Super Bowl loss and will start their mission on the road against a Patriots team looking to rebound from a frustrating 2022 season during which they missed the playoffs for the second time in three years.

Both teams return similar rosters to last season. Still, there are notable coordinator differences as the Eagles try to compensate for losing their offensive and defensive coordinators. At the same time, the Patriots brought in offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to try and resurrect their offense after stumbling through the Matt Patricia era last season.

Eagles vs Patriots Odds

NFL odds used for this Philadelphia vs New England preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of August 23 at 12:00 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Eagles (-218) • Patriots (+180)
  • Spread: Eagles -4 (-112) • Patriots +4 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 45.5 (-108) • Under 45.5 (-112)
  • Implied Score: Eagles 24.75, Patriots 20.75

Eagles vs Patriots Predictions

Score Pick: Eagles 27, Patriots 21

There will be a lot of emotion for the Patriots in this game as it’s their home opener, and they’ll be celebrating Tom Brady, but emotion shouldn’t lead our betting decisions. The Eagles are the favorites to (again) represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, while the Patriots are more likely to finish the season under .500 than to make the playoffs.

The Patriots’ offensive talent is sorely lacking compared to Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and the rest of the Eagles offense (including their excellent offensive line), and they haven’t made many impactful additions outside of bringing in O’Brien.

The Eagles defense remains underrated despite allowing just 20.2 points per game last year (good for seventh-best in the league). And while the Patriots defense looks good on paper (it’s more or less the same personnel that only allowed 20.4 points per game last season), their stats were skewed as the best quarterback they beat all season was Jared Goff.

Eagles vs Patriots Best Bets & Props

Eagles to win by 1-6 (+300)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units

My NFL bet of the day is the Eagles winning by less than a touchdown. They have a lot of things going for them as mentioned above, but the Patriots should be able to keep things at least close as Mac Jones and the rest of the Patriots offense should be able to improve on their 21.4 points per game average from last season (“good” for seventh-worst in the league) with a competent offensive game plan.

And while I don’t think they have enough firepower to keep up with the Eagles, I also don’t expect the Patriots to get blown out with Bill Belichick getting weeks to prepare his defense for Hurts and Co. There’s enough value here in the +300 line for a 2-unit wager.

Patriots Over 21.5 (+100)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Patriots only surpassed this total in 10 of their 17 games last year (that’s not good) and averaged just 21.4 points per game on the season, but there’s a new regime in town, and all accounts from training camp have the Patriots offense looking lights-years ahead of where they were last year.

They may not surpass this total by much due to the aforementioned offensive line issues and the Eagles strong defense, but O’Brien’s new scheme should give the Patriots enough juice to put up more than 20 points at home.

Eagles (-218)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units

I realize there isn’t much value in the -218 moneyline, but we’re also looking at a “use the Eagles as your Week 1 Survivor Pool team” matchup here. Even though they’re on the road, we’re also looking at a Super Bowl contender in the Eagles playing against a team that could arguably go 5-12 in the Patriots.

While the Patriots should be able to keep things relatively close at home, they will need a lot of things to go their way if they have a chance to pull an upset here.

Eagles -4 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

If you’re on board with my moneyline pick above, it’s almost a no-brainer to get on board for this one. Sure, the Patriots could squeak into that 1-3 point range in a loss, but they’re still dealing with multiple injuries across their already-shaky offensive line and will struggle to keep the Eagles’ elite defensive line from crashing the pocket around Jones.

They’ll be able to put up some points, but it will be a tall task for them to cover the spread.

Eagles vs Patriots Same Game Parlay

Eagles vs Patriots SGP (+400)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units

  • Patriots Over 21.5 (+120)
  • Eagles (-205)

The risk here is the Patriots going over 21 points, but the +400 odds are with the risk, considering the Eagles moneyline bet is as close to a sure thing as we might see in Week 1.

I’d expect this line to move to provide less value if we find out that injured offensive lineman Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu will play against the Eagles (which is likely based on reports), so there’s some value in locking this in now as long as you believe in the O’Brien effect in New England.

Author

Nick Roberts

Nick is an analyst at The Game Day who writes about the NFL and NBA from a betting perspective. He previously contributed to RotoWorld, Rotowire, and The New York Times. Nick resides in New Jersey.

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