We’ve got an intriguing matchup between the projected Offensive Rookie of the Year trying to upset one of the Super Bowl favorites in the NFC Divisional Round when Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders (13-5) take on Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions (15-2) at Ford Field on Saturday, January 18 at 8 p.m. ET.
While the Lions are expected to win this game, I wouldn’t count out the Commanders simply because they have one of the best rookie quarterbacks of all-time under center.
Which team will win this NFC Divisional game? Let’s examine the latest betting odds before diving into my Commanders vs Lions prediction and best bets for the NFL Playoffs.
Commanders vs Lions Odds
NFL odds are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 15, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Commanders (+370) vs Lions (-485)
- Spread: Commanders +9.5 (-112) vs Lions -9.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-105) / Under 55.5 (-115)
Commanders vs Lions Prediction
Lions 31, Commanders 24
The Lions offense is going to be tough for the Commanders to handle, especially on the ground with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Washington ranked 27th in Rush EPA on the season, so expect Detroit to gain chunk yardage in the running game.
We saw Saquon Barkley torch this defense for 146 rushing yards on Thursday Night Football earlier this year.
With that said, Washington has what it takes to keep this game within 10 points.
We saw Jayden Daniels look poised in his postseason debut, completing 24-of-35 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns, converting a few clutch fourth downs.
Speaking of fourth downs, expect head coach Dan Quinn to continue to be aggressive there, which is what you need to pull off an upset like knocking out the top-seeded Lions.
Expect a high-scoring matchup with Detroit’s running game being the difference-maker when it’s all said and done.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Commanders vs Lions Best Bets
Commanders +9.5 (-112)
Feels like we’re getting a lot of points with Commanders +9.5 at Lions.
I understand that this is an elite offense with home-field advantage, but we can’t underestimate Jayden Daniels.
Daniels kept it close in the first matchup with the Eagles (when Jalen Hurts played the full game) in a 26-18 loss and did the same at the Ravens in a 30-23 defeat.
In fact, Washington only has one 10+ loss this season — 37-20 to the Bucs in Week 1.
Look for the Commanders to move the ball effectively enough to keep this within 10 points. Prior to the win over the Vikings, the Lions had allowed 30+ points in three of their previous four games.
Back Commanders +9.5 as one of your best NFL bets today.
Commanders/Lions: Under 55.5 Points (-115)
I like the Under here because we’re getting a high bar at 55.5 points.
The Commanders like to play ball control, with long, methodical drives that chew time off the clock.
We saw this in their 23-20 win over the Bucs. Washington had 35:26 time of possession, limiting Tampa to only 43 plays.
I can see the same happening against the Lions, which would help keep this Under 55.5.
Given what we’ve seen in the playoffs so far (Unders are 5-1), I can’t pass this one up.
