The first game of the NFL Playoffs will feature Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) taking on C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans (10-7) at NRG Stadium in the AFC Wild Card game on Saturday, January 11 at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Los Angeles comes into the postseason on a high note — currently on a three-game winning streak — while Houston has lost two of their last three games.
Which team will win this AFC Wild Card game? Let’s examine the latest betting odds before diving into my Chargers vs Texans prediction and best bets for the NFL Playoffs.
Chargers vs Texans Odds
NFL odds are current as of Monday, Jan. 6, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Chargers (-155) vs Texans (+130)
- Spread: Chargers -2.5 (-118) vs Texans +2.5 (-102)
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-112) / Under 42.5 (-108)
Chargers vs Texans Prediction
Chargers 24, Texans 21
When I’m handicapping NFL Playoffs games, I’m looking at two important factors: coaching and quarterback play. I give the advantage to the Chargers in each.
Jim Harbaugh has done a terrific job in his first year as Chargers’ head coach, leading the team to the playoffs in a year where they were expected to hover around .500.
While DeMeco Ryans has led the Texans to their second division title in Year 2 as head coach, this is a team with a vanilla offense and pass protection issues.
Additionally, quarterback Justin Herbert has been much better than C.J. Stroud this season.
Herbert has put up a 101.7 quarterback rating with 23 touchdowns, 7.7 yards per attempt, and only three interceptions. Stroud has an 87.0 quarterback rating with 20 touchdowns, 7.0 yards per attempt, and 12 interceptions.
This is why the Chargers (12th in EPA) have been a more efficient offense than the Texans (21st in EPA).
Both Los Angeles (5th in EPA) and Houston (6th in EPA) have been good on defense, so it’s likely going to come down to quarterback play.
The Chargers are road favorites here for a reason, as Houston has a limited offense that is overly dependent on Nico Collins.
We saw the Texans outscored by the Ravens (31-2) and Chiefs (27-19) in Weeks 16-17, which doesn’t inspire much confidence in a postseason run.
Look for Los Angeles to squeak out a win on the road here.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Chargers vs Texans Best Bets
Chargers ML (-155)
I’d rather drink the juice at (-155) odds than go with Chargers -2.5. This could be the type of game where Los Angeles only wins by one or two points.
It’s similar to the Bengals and Steelers in Week 18. Cincinnati controlled the game throughout, but 10 unanswered points by the Steelers made it finish 19-17.
I want to avoid getting burned by a situation like that.
Justin Herbert is balling right now, throwing for 280+ yards in three consecutive games. During this stretch, he’s put up seven touchdowns and only one interception.
I’m confident in a Chargers win, but let’s play it a bit safer by laying the juice.
Back the Chargers ML as one of your best NFL bets today.
Chargers/Texans: Over 42.5 Points (-110)
We don’t have to worry about weather conditions at NRG Stadium since there is a retractable roof, which makes me prefer the Over with this low bar of only 42.5 points.
We’ve seen Justin Herbert and the Chargers pour on points in these situations — just take a look at their recent game log:
- 34-20 W at LV (54)
- 34-27 W vs DEN (61)
- 40-17 L vs TB (57)
- 17-13 W at ATL (30)
- 30-23 L vs BAL (53)
- 34-27 W vs CIN (61)
- 27-17 W vs TEN (44)
Six of their last seven games have gone Over 42.5 when in an environment where weather is not a factor.
We can win this bet with a 23-20 result, which is easily attainable here.
