After a brutally close loss at home to the Kansas City Chiefs, one which saw Zach Wilson play arguably his best game as a pro, the New York Jets enter Denver on Sunday with high expectations.
Will offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett exact his revenge on the team that fired him a year ago, or will the New York Jets continue to slip without Aaron Rodgers?
Here are our predictions and best bets for New York vs. Denver.
Jets vs Broncos Odds
NFL odds used for this New York vs Denver preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 5 at 4 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Broncos (-135) • Jets (+114)
- Spread: Broncos -2.5 (-112) • Jets +2.5 (-108)
- Total Points: Over 43 (-112) • Under 43 (-108)
- Implied Score: Broncos 22.75, Jets 20.25
Jets vs Broncos Predictions
Score Pick: Jets 24, Broncos 13
While it’s primarily because they’ve been trailing for a lot of the season, the fact remains that the Jets and Broncos rank in the top 10 when it comes to pass-play frequency. I think passing will ultimately decide the winner in a matchup between two volatile quarterbacks.
That’s why I land on the Jets here. Denver ranks dead last in the league with a 56.1% success rate against dropbacks and last in EPA per dropback. Opponents are averaging 8.9 yards per attempt, and this line owns just a 5.88% sack rate, which is 23rd in the NFL.
Wilson should feel comfortable in the pocket against a poor pass rush and a secondary that has looked abysmal. After torching the Chiefs’ secondary for most of the game last week, he should be licking his chops here and will likely go off again.
Jets vs Broncos Best Bets & Props
Jets (+114)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 units
Well, I’m on board with a Jets win, as I noted above, so I will skip the points in favor of the moneyline here.
The Jets are a surprising 21st in offensive DVOA through the air, checking in just six spots behind Denver. While sitting 22nd in defensive DVOA against the pass has to be considered a disappointment for a team with such high expectations entering the season, it’s worth mentioning that this unit limited Patrick Mahomes to just 203 yards and a touchdown last week and dropped what would have been an easy third interception against the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Overall, Denver’s defense is 30th in success rate, and we know the Jets’ offense at least has consistency in the run game. After Duane Brown’s injury, rookie Joe Tippmann has stepped in and improved the line. I trust this club a heck of a lot more, and the Jets are, therefore, our NFL bet of the day.
Dalvin Cook Anytime TD (+265)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 units
One of the most significant issues for the Denver Broncos has been stopping teams inside the 20. Opponents are converting red zone trips into touchdowns 81.25% of the time, which ranks second-to-last in the NFL.
Enter Dalvin Cook against one of the softest rushing defenses in football. The Jets haven’t been to the red zone a lot this year, but out of the eight snaps taken by running backs inside the 20, Cook has accounted for six, while Breece Hall has taken just one.
It’s been clear ever since they tried to pound the rock close to the goal line with Cook in Week 1 that he will be the guy around the goal line who will steal touchdowns. His first should come here, at long last.
Zach Wilson Over 201.5 Passing Yards (-114)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 units
I’m willing to fire up Wilson once again here, even though it feels like a huge letdown spot. The fact remains that Hackett is opening up this offense to try and maximize its output, and that starts with a ton of passing plays. Wilson has now attempted 36 or more passes in back-to-back weeks, and after a tough 157-yard day against a stout Patriots defense, he posted 245 yards last week against Kansas City.
Denver just let Justin Fields pass for 335 yards on 35 attempts, and before Tua Tagovailoa helped the Dolphins score 70 points in Week 3, Sam Howell had 299 yards on 39 attempts.
Assuming the Jets continue to let Wilson throw as I expect, this porous secondary should continue to relent.
Jets vs Broncos Same-Game Parlay
Jets vs Broncos SGP (+420)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
- Jets (+114)
- Under 43.5 (-112)
- 1H Under 20.5 (-108)
The Jets rank 28th in first-half scoring offense and have averaged just 8.3 points per game in the first half this season. Denver has averaged 13.5 to put it in the top 10, but that number is trending the wrong way after a seven-point output last week against Chicago.
I expect New York to win this game, but I’m not so sure it will be in a commanding offensive performance. I think combining the Jets to win with the first half under, and the full game under is the way to go.
