The final spot in the AFC Divisional Round will be decided when Josh Allen and the No. 2 seed Buffalo Bills (13-4) welcome Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos (10-7) to Orchard Park on Sunday, Jan. 12 at 1 p.m. ET.
The Broncos punched their ticket to the postseason in Week 18 with a 38-0 victory over the Chiefs, who rested most of their starters. The Bills were also able to give some players time off last week since their 23-16 loss to the Patriots didn’t affect their playoff position.
Will Buffalo be able to rev up the engines to secure its fifth consecutive win on Wild Card Weekend? Or will Bo Nix pull off a stunner in his first postseason start?
Let’s examine the latest betting odds for this NFL playoff matchup before digging into my Broncos vs Bills prediction and best bets.
Broncos vs Bills Odds
NFL odds are current as of Tuesday, Jan. 7, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Broncos (+340) vs Bills (-440)
- Spread: Broncos +8.5 (-108) vs Bills -8.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-118) / Under 46.5 (-102)
Broncos vs Bills Prediction
Bills 31, Broncos 21
The Bills should win this game for several reasons.
For one, Buffalo is the more experienced team. Sean McDermott’s squad has hosted a home playoff game on Wild Card Weekend each of the last four seasons, winning those contests by a combined score of 139-89. NFL MVP front-runner Josh Allen has been superb all season long, crucially cutting down on turnovers (six) this campaign.
Meanwhile, the Broncos haven’t been to the postseason since Peyton Manning led them to victory in Super Bowl 50 nearly nine years ago. While Denver head coach Sean Payton has plenty of experience in these high-stakes contests, much of his roster does not. That includes rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who will be playing the biggest game of his life in a raucous environment.
I don’t want to understate the impact of the Bills Mafia. Buffalo was a perfect 8-0 in Orchard Park during the regular season and hasn’t dropped a home game since losing to the Chiefs in last year’s Divisional Round.
In addition to being more experienced, the Bills are also more battle-tested. They beat the No. 1 seeds in both conferences during the regular season, handing the Chiefs and Lions two of their four combined losses. If you exclude Denver’s Week 18 victory over Kansas City’s backups, the Broncos beat just one playoff team all season: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Look for those factors to be the difference on Sunday when Buffalo advances to the Divisional Round for the fifth consecutive year.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Broncos vs Bills Best Bets
Over 46.5 Points (-118)
I like the Over in this matchup, especially with it sitting just below the key number of 47.
The Bills have scored 30-plus points in nine of the last 10 games that Josh Allen prominently featured in, and Denver’s defense has been exposed slightly in recent weeks by competent offenses like the Bengals and Chargers.
That means we shouldn’t need too many points from Bo Nix and the Broncos’ offense, which has scored at least 24 points in seven straight contests. Back the Over as one of your best NFL bets today.
Marvin Mims Jr.: Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The second-year wide receiver has enjoyed a much more significant role in the Denver passing attack over the second half of the campaign, exceeding this number in six of his last seven games.
I expect Mims to continue that upward trend on Sunday, as the Broncos are 8.5-point underdogs in this matchup and will likely be playing from behind. He’s also the type of deep threat who can clear this number with one or two catches.
Top wideout Courtland Sutton will likely draw the tougher matchup against Bills corner Taron Johnson, so I’d expect Mims to get several looks, giving him a great chance to cash this prop.
