Week 12 NFL Betting Trends: Trust Browns, road faves?

Last Updated: Jan 9, 2021

Week 12 NFL Betting Trends: We have made it to Week 12 of the NFL season, and it’s one of the best weeks of the year. We have three Thursday games for Thanksgiving and a great Sunday schedule. To get you ready for the wild week ahead, here are the five trends you need to know before placing your favorite bets.

Week 12 NFL Betting Trends

1. The Pittsburgh Steelers have failed to cover the spread in six straight games at home vs. Baltimore.

The best game on Thursday features the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers are trying to stay perfect on the season and the Ravens are trying to stay in the Wild Card race in the AFC.

Pittsburgh is currently a 3.5- to 4.5-point favorite in this game, but be careful if you’re considering automatically picking the Steelers, despite Baltimore’s recent woes.

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Pittsburgh has failed to cover the spread in six-straight games at home against the Ravens. John Harbaugh‘s teams usually show up and play well. Baltimore has now won 10 of their last 11 road games, with their only loss coming in the monsoon in New England a few weeks ago.

Look for the Ravens to keep this game within a field goal and potentially steal this game on Thanksgiving evening.

2. Atlanta is 2-14 against the spread in their last 16 games against AFC opponents.

The Falcons have played much better over the last month of the season. They have wins over the Broncos and Panthers and should have had another win over the Lions if it weren’t for a Todd Gurley mishap at the end of that game.

But for whatever reason, this is a team that has struggled mightily against AFC opponents over the last few seasons. Atlanta has covered the spread just twice in their previous 16 games when facing the opposing conference.

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They will take on the Las Vegas Raiders, who impressed in a loss over the Chiefs in Week 11.

The Falcons are three-point home underdogs in this game, but can they keep this game close? This has a chance to be one of the weekend’s better games, given the firepower on each side of the ball.

3. The Browns have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 road games.

Believe it or not, the Browns are well on the way to reaching the playoffs. Sitting at 7-3, they likely need just three more wins to clinch a playoff berth. While they played well this season, they aren’t a team you can trust on the road yet, especially not when they are a favorite.

Despite the year Kareem Hunt (27) and Nick Chubb are having, the Browns still can’t be trusted as a road favorite. (USA TODAY Sports)

Over the last 10 road games, the Browns have covered just once. Cleveland has a dominating run game, but with Baker Mayfield still struggling and no Myles Garrett in this game due to COVID-19, don’t be surprised if the Jaguars keep this game close on Sunday.

4. The New Orleans Saints have won 10 of their last 11 road games.

At one point in time, the Saints were known as a poor road team that failed to show up when playing outdoors. But since they’ve improved their defense and run game, they’ve become a team that can go anywhere and plays well.

In Week 12, they will travel to Denver to take on the Broncos.

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They will be without quarterback Drew Brees once again, but Taysom Hill proved to be competent in his first career start. The Saints are one of the best overall teams in the NFL, and don’t expect them to get tripped up by a team like the Broncos.

5. The total has gone Under in four of the Cowboys’ last five games.

Earlier in the NFL season, oddsmakers couldn’t set lines high enough for the Cowboys as their defense gave up points at will. Dallas’ offense helped keep point totals high as we saw shootout after shootout when the Cowboys took the field.

But over the last few weeks, their defense has played better and Dallas has transitioned from a pass-first offense under Dak Prescott to a ball-control attack with Andy Dalton.

Due to the slower style of offense and the better defensive play, we have now seen the under hit in four of their previous five games. On Thursday, the total sits at 46 as they will play Washington for the right to lead the NFC East heading into the weekend.

Considering that both offenses have less-than-stellar quarterback play and shaky offensive lines, don’t be surprised if we see thUnder hit once again with the Cowboys.

Prepare Week 12 betting tips and plan


Marcus Mosher

Marcus Mosher is an NFL analyst at The Game Day, residing in Erie, PA. He covers the NFL from a betting and fantasy perspective, producing written and video content. Marcus currently hosts multiple football-related podcasts and is a managing editor at USA Today’s Sports Media Group covering the Las Vegas Raiders. He has previously worked at The Athletic and Bleacher Report.

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