Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday Night Football with the Houston Texans hosting the Buffalo Bills.
While both teams are coming off a win, the Texans will be without quarterback C.J. Stroud for the third straight game, and this will undoubtedly impact my thought process for my TNF best bets.
Below, I’ll dig into my three best bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 12.
Best Thursday Night Football Prop Bets for Bills vs Texans
All NFL odds used for these player props bets are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 19, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Josh Allen: Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+117)
While the Texans have the best defense in the NFL, they play two coverage schemes that Allen has performed well against: Cover-3 and Cover-4.
Against these coverages, Allen has thrown 10 of his 18 touchdowns and is completing over 71% of his passes.
Given the +117 odds and his success against these coverages, I’d be willing to wager a half-unit on this NFL pick of the day.
Dawson Knox: Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
In Week 11, Knox caught just one pass for 23 yards.
Now, in Week 12, the Bills’ tight end could face even more competition for targets if Keon Coleman returns to the lineup after being benched for last week’s win over Tampa Bay.
The Texans allow 40 receiving yards per game to the position, but Knox just isn’t getting enough targets to make this a viable option, making this one of my best Thursday Night Football prop bets.
Nico Collins: Over 5.5 Receptions (-107)
To close out my TNF prop bets, I’m taking Collins to go over his receptions prop.
With Davis Mills under center last week, Collins caught nine of 10 passes for 92 yards and a touchdown.
Now, the star wideout will face a Bills defense that primarily plays Cover-3. Against Cover-3 this season, Collins has caught 18 passes, roughly 37% of his production in that category.
The Bills are sizable favorites in this game, and I expect the Texans to need to throw to stay competitive, so Collins should clear this number.
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My Three-Leg TNF Parlay for Bills vs Texans in Week 12 (+625)
By adding all three wagers above into a Same Game Parlay, you’ll receive odds of +625.
If you were to wager $100, you’d win $625.
