After Scottie Scheffler’s dominant victory at the American Express, the PGA Tour’s California swing continues this week with the Farmers Insurance Open.
This tournament will see the field split its first two rounds between Torrey Pines North and Torrey Pines South before playing the weekend on the longer, more difficult South Course.
One of the biggest PGA Tour storylines this week is the return of Brooks Koepka, who will play in his first event since leaving LIV Golf.
Let’s further examine the field and the betting odds before digging into my 2026 Farmers Insurance Open predictions.
John Arlia 2026 PGA Tour Betting Record: Winner Picks 0-2 (-2 Units), Matchups 1-0 (+1 Unit), Finishing Props 1-0 (+3.1 Units)
2026 Farmers Insurance Open Odds
All golf odds used for these 2026 Farmers Insurance Open predictions are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 28, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Xander Schauffele (+1475)
- Ludvig Aberg (+1700)
- Cameron Young (+1950)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2350)
- Chris Gotterup (+2600)
- Si Woo Kim (+2700)
- J.J. Spaun (+2800)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
- Maverick McNealy (+3200)
- Jason Day (+3300)
- Harris English (+3500)
All other players have odds of +3700 or longer.
2026 Farmers Insurance Open Winner Predictions
Ludvig Aberg (+1700)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Last year was an interesting one for Aberg at Torrey Pines.
The Swede jumped out to the first-round lead at the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open, firing a 9-under 63 before heavy winds and a weekend illness derailed his chances of taking home the title.
Then, less than a month later, Aberg triumphed at the Genesis Invitational, which had been moved from Riviera Country Club to Torrey Pines due to wildfires in the Los Angeles area.
Aberg posted a T-9 finish at the Farmers in 2024, so there’s something he clearly likes about this course setup.
Unfortunately, this wager carries some risk, as the 26-year-old withdrew from last week’s American Express due to illness. That said, he was 9-under par through two rounds last week, and I’d rather bet on Aberg’s potential at a venue that he clearly loves.
Back him to win the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open with one of your best golf betting picks today.
Wyndham Clark (+4200)
WAGER: 0.5 Units
Clark put together a solid week at the American Express, shooting rounds of 66, 64, and 66, before falling off the pace slightly with a final-round 72 to finish in a tie for 13th place.
That performance was encouraging enough for me to back him at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he has made four cuts in five previous trips.
- Sign up for The Game Day Newsletter to get the latest bet tips and sportsbook promos.
While Clark’s record at Torrey Pines isn’t spectacular, two of his three PGA Tour victories have come in California, including his triumph at the 2023 U.S. Open.
His driving distance and short-game prowess make him a strong fit for this venue, so I’m in at these longer odds.
2026 Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets
72-Hole Matchup: Nicolai Hojgaard (-124) vs Marco Penge
WAGER: 1.24 Units
Nicolai Hojgaard is favored over Marco Penge in this tournament matchup prop, and for good reason.
The Dane is coming off a T-4 finish at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic last week and came solo second at the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open, his lone previous start at this event.
Meanwhile, Penge is making his season debut at Torrey Pines after dealing with a viral illness that forced him to skip the Sony Open in Hawaii.
The 27-year-old also made an equipment change in January, so there are many variables at play for Penge’s first tournament as a full-time PGA Tour member.
While Torrey Pines projects as a great fit for the big-hitting Brit, I’ll take my chances on another long hitter who we’ve seen more recently.
Top-20 Finish: Aldrich Potgieter (+400)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Potgieter led the PGA Tour in driving distance last season, averaging 325 yards off the tee.
That skill set is important this week, as three of the four rounds are contested at the Torrey Pines South Course, which measures 7,765 yards. For reference, none of the three courses at last week’s American Express measured more than 7,210 yards.
Unsurprisingly, the 21-year-old South African wasn’t able to maximize his greatest strength in La Quinta, which resulted in a missed cut. However, he posted a T-15 finish in his Farmers Insurance Open debut last year, despite a final-round 78.
Picking and choosing your spots with bombers like Potgieter is important, and this week is one you want to fire him up.
With that in mind, consider this wager with our top sportsbook promotions for 2026.
