The San Francisco 49ers outlasted the Green Bay Packers, 13-10, in an upset victory in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. Now they will attempt to reach the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons as they travel to face the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game.
This will be the third time that the NFC West rivals will square off this season, as San Francisco won the first two meetings. Breakthrough rookie running back Elijah Mitchell will be a key performer, as the 49ers offense is always heavily centered around the ground game.
We take an in-depth look at which player props for Mitchell you should take against the Rams this week.
Please note that all NFL gameday lines are current as of 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, January 27.
Elijah Mitchell Conference Championship Prop Bets
OVER 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Wager: 2 Units
While Deebo Samuel has the potential to create excitement every time he touches the ball, Mitchell remains the apparent lead running back for a run-heavy offense. San Francisco ranked fourth in run/pass ratio during the regular season and is second among postseason teams with 67 rushing attempts in the NFL playoffs so far.
Mitchell carried the ball 17 times in the win at Green Bay. In his previous six games played, Mitchell had logged 21-plus attempts in every outing, with 27 attempts in three of those games.
Mitchell had 21 and 27 attempts in his two meetings with the Rams during the regular season. He should certainly be projected for a significant workload, as the Niners will want to control the clock as much as possible and keep the potent Rams offense off the field.
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Mitchell has carried the ball 17 or more times in all but two of the 13 games he has played in this season, including the playoffs. The last time he had fewer than 17 attempts was in Week 9 against Arizona.
While Mitchell had 17 attempts to Samuel’s 10 last week, he still played 72 percent of the snaps against the Packers. His snap share has increased to above 70 percent in both of the Niners’ playoff games after he was under 60 percent in the final two regular-season games.
- Read more of our NFL Conference Championship Player Prop Bets.
If the 49ers do fall behind quickly against the Rams, that would be a scenario in which you could speculate that he does not reach 17 carries. But these teams know each other well and the score may be close for much of the game.
Beating any team three times in a season is a tall task, but San Francisco has owned Los Angeles in recent meetings, having won the last six regular-season matchups. Even if the 49ers lose, they should remain competitive enough to lead Mitchell to reach and surpass the 17-carry mark.
Check out more of our 49ers vs Rams Predictions
UNDER 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Wager: 1 Unit
This may seem like a daring pick when we remind you that Mitchell rushed for 85 and 91 yards in his two regular-season matchups with the Rams. Plus, if the game figures to be close, you may expect Mitchell to be successful in terms of his rushing yardage totals.
But let’s consider the approach of the Rams last week against Tampa Bay as an example of how teams will make sure defenses respect the running game even when it doesn’t lead to ideal results. While he finished with only 48 rushing yards, Cam Akers had 24 rushing attempts.
Los Angeles did not veer away from significant usage of their lead RB even though the results were certainly not optimal in terms of yardage gained. San Francisco will do the same, relying on its customary plan of attack even if Mitchell does not produce the desired yardage returns.
Sticking to the running game will keep the defense honest, even if Mitchell has to battle hard for every yard he gains this week. Mitchell averaged just 3.1 yards per carry last week, and the Rams have allowed 56 rushing yards per game so far in the playoffs, best among all postseason teams.
Los Angeles ranked sixth against the run during the regular season and will be geared up to stop the Niners’ running game, the focal point of the San Francisco offense. The 49ers will stick with their preferred method of attack for an ample amount of attempts, but it won’t lead to Mitchell getting past 70 rushing yards this time, making this our NFL bet of the day.
