The Houston Texans dismantled the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Wild Card Round, as Aaron Rodgers didn’t stand a chance against this dominant defense.
Now, the Texans will face a much more daunting task against MVP contender Drake Maye and the New England Patriots.
This game projects to be another close contest, with the biggest question being whether or not the Texans’ defense can slow down Maye and Co.
In this article, we’ll dive into our Texans vs Patriots predictions for the first of two NFL Divisional Round games on Sunday.
Texans vs Patriots Odds
All NFL odds used for these Texans vs Patriots best bets are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 14, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Texans (+142) vs Patriots (-170)
- Spread: Texans +3 (-102) vs Patriots -3 (-118)
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-115) / Under 40.5 (-105)
The Patriots opened as short home favorites, but the line has moved from -2.5 to -3. I can see why, given the significant quarterback edge and home-field advantage for New England.
The total looks about right at 40.5 because the Texans’ defense looked absolutely dominant against the Steelers in the AFC Wild Card Round.
Texans vs Patriots Predictions
Score Prediction: Patriots 21, Texans 17
C.J. Stroud looked erratic against the Steelers last week. The third-year quarterback lost two fumbles and threw an interception in Houston’s 30-6 victory over Pittsburgh on Monday night.
While I’m still a believer in Stroud long-term, he’s had issues due to pass protection problems and vanilla play-calling, along with some of his own regression.
On the other side, Maye has been an absolute superstar for the Patriots all year. While he benefited from an easy schedule, New England still had some impressive wins, including one in Buffalo against the Bills.
This game will likely look similar to New England’s Week 3 matchup against Pittsburgh, when the Patriots lost 21-14 to the Steelers due to five costly turnovers.
If the Pats protect the ball, they should squeak out a win here. Their defense is improving, and there’s too much of an edge under center.
Texans vs Patriots Best Bets
Patriots -3 (-118)
I like that we’re getting below -3.5 with the Patriots at home here, albeit at a higher price of -118.
New England’s defense did a terrific job on Justin Herbert last week, limiting him to only 159 passing yards on 31 attempts. If the Pats can keep that up, it’s going to be difficult for Stroud to move the ball against this group.
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Even though the Texans have a dominant defense, I like Maye’s chances of having success.
I’m betting on the home team as my NFL pick of the day.
Under 40.5 Total Points (-105)
As I mentioned above, this game reminds me of Steelers vs Patriots in Week 3: a hard-fought contest that comes down to the wire and remains low-scoring.
Simply put, the Texans’ defense is too good to risk taking an over, even at a low number like 40.5.
But what really puts me over the top with the under here is how well the Patriots’ defense has been playing lately, most recently shutting down the Chargers.
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