Against The Spread: Titans -6 (-110)/Browns +6 (-110)
Moneyline: Titans (-261)/Browns (+205)
Total: 54 — Over 54 (-115)/Under 54 (-105)
Implied Team Totals: Titans 30, Browns 24
In what could be the game of the week, the Titans will host the Browns. The Titans are 3-3 in their past six games but 3-1 in their past four, while currently riding a two-game winning streak.
Meanwhile, the Browns are 4-2 in their past six and enter this matchup victorious in each of their past three games. This is set to be a matchup dominated by the run.
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Browns Titans Key Injuries
The Browns have health issues in their secondary. Denzel Ward (calf), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (shoulder), Sheldrick Redwine (knee) are all day-to-day with their respective ailments.
I haven’t even mentioned the fact that Grant Delpit (Achilles) and Greedy Williams (shoulder) remain sidelined and have not been seen since the first half of the year. And if Myles Garrett (illness) sits, Cleveland will be down its best pass rusher for the third straight game.
Cleveland’s defensive injuries could ultimately be their downfall against one of the most explosive offenses in the league.
Look for the Browns to throw all that they can to stop the run led by Derrick Henry. If that’s the case, Ryan Tannehill should have a field day picking apart the Browns’ potentially make-shift secondary should some or all of the aforementioned players sit out.
Titans CB Adoree’ Jackson has not played all season with a knee injury. However, he can return anytime his knee feels up to it after he was activated from the injured reserve list in early November.
While he has yet to play, the fact that the Titans did not put him back on IR is promising. The Titans need Jackson as their secondary has been gashed by big plays all year.
Browns Titans Players to Watch
Titans RB Derrick Henry is having an MVP-caliber season. Through 11 games, Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards (1257) and is second amongst running backs in total scores (12). In 11 games played, Henry has logged seven with 100+ rushing yards.
In his past three games, however, Henry has been a monster. Not only has he rushed for at least 103 yards in all three, but he’s scored a touchdown in two straight and four total times in that period. Have I mentioned his last three opponents were the Colts (twice) and Ravens, two of the best run defenses in the NFL?
Henry will look for his fourth consecutive game with 100 rushing yards this week against the Browns. In his last meeting with the Browns in 2019, Henry went off for 159 total yards (75 receiving) and two scores. The Browns are allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game this season (108.2), but as I have suggested, the elite back is matchup-proof.
While we know the Browns are the best team in the NFL at running the football, averaging 161.4 yards per game, where they falter is passing. And although Cleveland’s struggles fall on the shoulders of Baker Mayfield, who has yet to throw for over 297 yards in a game this season, it is not all his fault. He has minimal help at wide receiver.
However, that changed last week. Jarvis Landry finally stepped up and got going for the first time in 2020. In last week’s win, Landry matched a season-high in targets (11) and recorded an 8/143/1 stat line. The entire line were season-bests for Landry, including his first game with 100+ yards and his first score.
In last year’s meeting with the Titans, Landry managed four receptions for 67 yards. He must play more like he did last week against the Jaguars than he did in last year’s meeting with the Titans to give the Browns a shot at their ninth win of the year on Sunday.
The Titans are allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game (268.5). This is a prime matchup for Landry to maintain his recent momentum.
Browns Titans Weather Report
The weather at Nissan Stadium calls for a clear and sunny afternoon at the time of kickoff with a 0% precipitation probability.
The temperature is forecast at 41 degrees Fahrenheit with 6 mph winds blowing West-Northwest.
Browns Titans Bet Tips
BEST BET: Over 54 (-115)
As I mentioned above in the injuries section, Cleveland’s defense is banged up with a handful of players who start or see significant snaps up in the air to play. They’ll face a Titans offense that hung 45 and 30 points on the Colts and Ravens respectively in each of their past two games, two of the best defenses the NFL has to offer.
Meanwhile, the lowly Browns’ defense just let the Mike Glennon-led Jaguars score 25 on them in last week’s squeaked-out victory.
In a game that features two of the top three rushing offenses in the league, there will be produced to be had. And when there is production, there are points to follow.
While the Browns struggle to pass the football, they get one of the NFL’s worst secondaries that can be exploited. The Titans, are not that much better at passing the football statistically, but that is because they are more efficient when they do. What’s more, the Browns also have issues stopping the pass, allowing 246.6 yards per game.
This game should feature an explosion of points, especially if both running games are clicking, which will open up the play-action pass.
The Over is 8-1-1 in the Titans’ past 10 games.
The Over is 6-4 in the Browns’ past 10 games but 2-4 in their past six. But if you remember, there were a few low-scoring contests played at the Browns that were affected by menacing winds. This game is being played in Tennessee and the weather looks fine.
CONSIDER: Titans -6 (-110)
While both of these teams own the same 8-3 record, I will give a vast edge to the Titans. They have the better quarterback and more reliable weapons on the outside. They are also a healthier team on either side of the ball.
The Browns are 1-5 against the spread in their past six games and have failed to cover in each of their past three games on the road.
The Titans are 3-1 ATS in their past four games.
Both teams are sub .500 clubs covering the spread this season. The Titans are 5-6 while the Browns are 4-7.
Pass: Browns (+205)
While I am passing on the Browns Moneyline, I don’t blame anyone for running with it. At (+205) odds, they can find a win with the way they run the football and control the tempo of the game. How they get the win is what I question.
If Baker Mayfield does not turn the ball over and doesn’t miss the easy, chain-moving throws, the Browns will have a shot. However, they must find a way to contain Derrick Henry and pressure Ryan Tannehill, which is the bigger issue. The Browns have one of the worst pass-rushes in the NFL with or without Myles Garrett. Someone must step up. I just don’t see it happing.
Anthony Cervino is 31-33-1 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
Anthony Cervino is an NFL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a lifelong NFL savant and self-proclaimed league historian. In the industry, Anthony has excelled in both the fantasy football and sports betting space with fantasy his proverbial bread and butter.
Anthony has made appearances on SiriusXM, amongst other publications. He is also the co-creator of the FF Faceoff (Faceoff Sports Network) and the FF Faceoff Mental Health Podathon partnered with the Hayden Hurst Foundation.
15th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for both draft and in-season accuracy (2019)
| 8th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for sleepers (2020)
| 13th most accurate ranker in the FantasyPros ECR for in-season accuracy, including 2nd at quarterback and 3rd at tight end (2021).
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