Denver Broncos (4-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night at 8:20 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Broncos Chiefs Bet Tips.
All odds and lines from PointsBet, current as of Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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Broncos Chiefs Bet Tips
Broncos Chiefs Odds and Betting Lines
- Against The Spread: Chiefs -14 (-105)/Broncos +14 (-115)
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-936)/Broncos (+630)
- Total: 50.5 — Over 50.5 (-115)/Under 50.5 (-105)
- Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 32, Broncos 18
The Broncos are 2-4 in their past six games and are coming off of a week to forget. They started Kendall Hinton, a converted practice squad wide receiver, at quarterback, in last Sunday’s demeaning loss to the Saints.
They’ll face one of the best teams, if not the best team, in the NFL on Sunday night in the form of the Chiefs. Kansas City has won six straight games after suffering its only loss of the year back in Week 5.
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Broncos Chiefs Key Injuries
Broncos
Good news. The fiasco that was the Broncos’ quarterback situation last week has been clarified. Drew Lock, Blake Bortles, and Brett Rypien have all been cleared to return to the team after missing last week’s game on the COVID-19 list because they were close contacts with Jeff Driskel without masks. As a result, Lock is in line to return as the team’s starter.
On another note, one of Denver’s top cornerbacks, Bryce Callahan, who defected to the Broncos with Vic Fangio from the Bears last offseason, is questionable to play on Sunday with a foot injury.
In 655 snaps, Callahan is the second-best cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus, only behind Xavien Howard of the Dolphins. While Callahan is questionable, he’s been on the injury report a lot this season, but only missed two games as a result. Denver needs Callahan if they have any chance at containing Kansas City’s high-octane passing attack.
Chiefs
The Chiefs do not have any new significant injuries. They’ve been one of the healthier teams in this erratic 2020 campaign.
Broncos Chiefs Players to Watch
Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill has been outstanding this season. Despite only being ranked as the seventh-best receiver in targets (1010) and the 11th best in receptions (68), Hill is No. 2 in receiving yards (1021) and total touchdowns (14) at his position. What is even more impressive is the fact that he has scored at least one touchdown in 10-of-11 games.
In his last three meetings with the Broncos, Hill has accumulated 3+ receptions, 55+ yards, and 1+ touchdown, scoring four times in that three-game period.
In their last meeting with Bryce Callahan acting as Hill’s primary cover corner, Hill managed a 6/55/1 line on 10 targets. He will get Callahan (foot) again on Sunday if he is active.
Broncos RB Melvin Gordon was more or less game-scripted out of relevancy in Week 7’s 43-16 loss to the Chiefs. However, he still managed 80 total yards and a touchdown on 19 touches (2 receptions).
Success against the Chiefs is nothing new for Gordon. In nine career games, Gordon has gone for 100+ total yards three times while scoring in five different outings. Gordon has scored at least one touchdown in five of his past seven games facing Kansas City, including in two straight.
Gordon must get going and run effectively on Sunday to keep Patrick Mahomes and company on the sidelines. Easier said than done. However, if the Chiefs have a weakness on defense, it is defending the run. The Chiefs are yielding the 10th most rushing yards per game (128.2) this season.
Broncos Chiefs Weather Report
The weather at Arrowhead Stadium calls for clear nocturnal skies at the time of kickoff with a 0% chance of precipitation.
The temperature is forecast at 35 degrees Fahrenheit with 2 mph winds blowing West-NorthWest.
Broncos Chiefs Bet Tips
BEST BET: Under 50.5 (-105)
In the last meeting between Denver and Kansas City back in Week 7, the 46-point total went Over. In fact, the Chiefs nearly covered the total by themselves with their 43-16 victory.
However, the Over is not the trend between these two AFC West foes. In their past five meetings, the Under is 3-1-1.
The Under is 6-5 in both of the Chiefs and Broncos’ past 11 games overall.
The Under is 3-0 in Denver’s past three games.
The Under is 2-3 in the Chiefs’ past five and 3-3 in their past six.
Even with Drew Lock back under center for Denver, I don’t see how the Broncos put points up this week on the road. Arrowhead is a tough place to play for any visiting quarterback, nevermind an inconsistent one like Lock.
Meanwhile, Denver has one of the better defenses in the NFL despite what their record suggests. They aren’t giving up 43 again to the Chiefs.
CONSIDER: Chiefs -14 (-105)
While the money is going in the direction of Denver getting the 14 points, recent trends suggest Kansas City ceding the points is the way to go.
In the past three meetings between these two teams, the Chiefs would have easily covered the 14 in three straight blowout wins.
The Chiefs are 9-1 against the spread facing-off with the Broncos in their past 10 matchups.
Both the Chiefs and Broncos are 6-5 ATS in their 11 games played this season.
PASS: Chiefs (-936)
I am punting the Moneyline going in either direction.
The Chiefs are the clear play, but a $100 wager on their Moneyline only pays $110.81. You’d have to lay $1000 to net $108.10. If anything, parlay the Moneyline with a safe player prop or two to get better odds.
On the other side, I just don’t give the Broncos a shot to win this game. Despite the terrific (+630) odds, this is not one of those intra-division games where anything can happen. This is not the WWE. No one is going to RKO Patrick Mahomes outta nowhere just like the Broncos aren’t going to win this game.
Anthony Cervino is 31-33-1 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
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