Buffalo Bills (10-3) at Denver Broncos (5-8)
Bills Broncos Bet Tips
Bills-Broncos Odds and Betting Lines
- Against The Spread: Bills -6.5 (-115)/Broncos +6.5(-105)
- Moneyline: Bills (-301)/Broncos (+240)
- Total: 50 — Over 50 (-115)/Under 50 (-105)
- Implied Team Totals: Bills 28, Broncos 21.5
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Bills Broncos Key Injuries
BillsBills WR John Brown has missed the past three games with an ankle injury that landed him on the injured reserve list. However, Brown is expected to resume practicing this week, which makes him in play to return for Saturday’s tilt at the Broncos. If Brown returns, red-hot rookie Gabriel Davis will regress back to the team’s No. 4 wide receiver spot amidst a loaded Bills passing attack. Daivs has scored a touchdown in four of his past five games, including three straight.
BroncosA big story that could affect your Bills-Broncos picks: Denver’s secondary is hurting. Not only is A.J. Bouye slated to miss the rest of the season as he servers a six-game PED ban: CB Bryce Callahan is on injured reserve with a foot injury while Duke Dawson Jr. is out for the remainder of the year with a knee. As a result of all their injuries, look for third-round rookie CB Michael Ojemudia, CB Kevin Toliver II, and CB Kareem Jackson to hold down the fort.
Bills Broncos Players to Watch
Broncos WR Tim Patrick has been balling out this season. Opening the year over-shadowed by first-round rookie Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton (IR), Patrick is second on the team in targets (67), second in receptions (43), first in yards (643), and first in receiving touchdowns (6). Patrick has gone for 119 yards or a touchdown in three of his past four games, including two straight games with a score and three total in that two-game period. Patrick isn’t the only supporting wideout to step up of late. Second-round rookie KJ Hamler also had himself a game in last week’s win over Carolina, ending the game with a 2/86/2 stat line on three targets. With the Bills coming to town, Denver receivers must be at their best. Buffalo’s high-powered offense could turn this game into a shootout, or at worst an opportunity for garbage-time production for the Broncos, which helps fantasy football managers more than anything else. The Bills are allowing the 14th most passing yards per game (243.9) in 2020. While the Bills often struggle to run the football, they have no issue slinging it downfield. Josh Allen has been terrific this season, but his third-year leap has a lot to do with Stefon Diggs. In 13 games, Diggs has already set new career-bests in receiving yards (1167) and yards per game (89.8) while matching his current career-high of games with 100+ yards (5). He will also more than likely exceed his previous marks in targets (149) and receptions (102). Diggs currently has 134 targets and 100 catches. In five of his past six games, Diggs has recorded at least six receptions for 92 yards or a touchdown, including two games exceeding 100+ yards. He’s also drawn 9+ targets in all six of those contests, topping 10+ targets in four of them. Diggs gets a Denver secondary allowing the 10th-fewest passing yards per game (220.7) but will enter Saturday’s matchup down three corners (Duke Dawson Jr., A.J. Bouye, and Bryce Callahan).
Bills-Broncos Weather Report
The weather at Empower Field at Mile High calls for a clear and sunny afternoon at the time of kickoff with a 0% chance of precipitation. The temperature is set at 23 degrees Fahrenheit with 5 mph winds.
Bills-Broncos Picks & Best Bet
BEST BET: Under 50 (-105)While the Broncos defense has been hot and cold this season, they have played their best ball at Mile High. In six home games played in 2020, the Under is 4-2. In those four games in which the total met the Under facing the Titans, Buccaneers, Saints, and Dolphins, fewer than 38 total points were scored. In the two games that went Over against the Chiefs and Chargers, the totals were at least 59 points. Each of the past two games played at Mile High went Under. The Under is 4-5-1 in the Bills’ past 10 games and 2-1 in their past three. The Under is 4-1 in Denver’s past five games, reaching the Over in last week’s road win at Carolina. While the Bills’ defense has been suspect at best this season, they have given up fewer than 24 points in each of their past three games, two of which, yielding fewer than 17 to the Chargers and Steelers, two offenses that can score. The Under is 3-3 in the past six meetings between the Bills and Broncos but 2-1 in their past three, including their 2019 matchup in which Buffalo won 20-3.
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CONSIDER: Bills -6.5 (-115)The Bills are seven points better than the Broncos, even on the road. Following last week’s win over the Steelers, the Bills cemented themselves as one of the best teams in the NFL. While the Bills are allowing the 13th most rushing yards per game this season (119.9), they have improved. In three games since Week 12, the Bills have allowed 208 rushing yards and a touchdown to enemy running backs. Denver loves to run the football. As long as the Buffalo front seven can continue their positive regression in stopping the run, they can easily make this Broncos’ offense one-dimensional. And although Drew Lock is playing the best football of his young career, he will be hard-pressed to keep up with Josh Allen if the Bills begin to roll. The Bills have covered the spread in each of the past six meetings against the Broncos, including their 2019 win. The Bills have covered the spread in each of their past five games. The Broncos are 3-1 against the spread in their past four games, covering in each of their past two.
CONSIDER: Broncos (+240)Insert trap game narrative here. This is one of those games that screams Upset Special. Though unlikely, I can make the case for it. Drew Lock is getting it together and we have seen the Buffalo defense struggle this season. The Broncos are also 2-2 in their past four games picking up wins against the Panthers last week and the Dolphins back in Week 11. That Miami victory was a Denver home game. The Dolphins had to travel West. The Bills are red hot and coming off of a terrific win over the Steelers. Because of the magnitude of that Week 14 victory, the Bills can be in line for a letdown. Listen, I won’t recommend it, but I would not blame you for placing a small wager or parlaying the Denver Moneyline just in case the Broncos pull off the improbable win. Anthony Cervino is 48-40-1 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
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