In one of the best NFL rivalries, the AFC divisional round brings a hotly contested matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
The difference between this year’s Buffalo Bills from teams in years past is a much more effective running game, anchored by second-year back James Cook. With a more balanced offense, defenses aren’t able to key in on Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
The Kansas City Chiefs need continued big plays from Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice, but we can count on Travis Kelce, who needs just 12 more receptions to eclipse Jerry Rice for most in playoff history.
Check out our best Divisional Round Same Game Parlays and player props for Bills vs. Chiefs below.
NFL odds used in these parlays are current as of Friday, Jan. 19, at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Bills vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay
Bills vs. Chiefs Top Parlay
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
- James Cook: Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Stefon Diggs:
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The Chiefs will struggle in this game, and while the Bills aren’t going to dominate, it will be a decisive Buffalo win somewhere in the range of a 27-10 scoreline.
This is the baseline for my single-game parlay picks, so if you don’t see the finish going that way, these selections won’t work for you. But, please, let me make my case.
The Bills have only allowed one running back to rush for more than 61.5 yards since Week 13 (Austin Ekeler, 65 yards). However, to his credit, Pacheco has eclipsed this total in three of his last four games. The former Rutgers star runner also has at least 15 carries in six of his last seven.
Is it so much to think Pacheco can rush for 4.0 yards per carry on 15 carries, especially when he’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry? Of note, Pacheco was unable to play in Week 14 against the Bills, so we don’t have any data from that game to use here.
In the opposing backfield, Cook will consistently be tasked to be the difference-maker for Buffalo’s offense, so I’m taking him Over 61.5 rushing yards.
Like Pacheco, Cook has been getting the ball often, with at least 15 carries in four of his last five. In his previous outing against Kansas City this season, Cook rushed for 58 yards on 10 carries, so he might only need 11 carries in this game to beat his rush total.
Finally, Stefon Diggs only has one game over his 62.5 receiving yards Over/Under total in his last six contests, so I’m taking the Under.
The Chiefs haven’t allowed a receiver to hit the 62.5-yard threshold since Week 13 and held Diggs to just four receptions and 24 yards on 11 targets in Week 14.
Longshot Bills vs. Chiefs Parlay
Bills vs. Chiefs Longshot Parlay
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 Units
- Bills -2.5 (-120)
- Under 39.5 Alt (+180)
- Chiefs Under 17.5 (+164)
- Josh Allen Over 228.5 Pass Yards (-115)
I’m laying the 2.5 points with Buffalo based on the belief that the Bills will win this game.
However, this will be a low-scoring affair, so err against trying to predict anytime TD scorers in this matchup. Anytime TD player props are better in games with more shootout potential.
Next, I’m doubling down on a low score by taking Under 39.5, six points fewer than the current Over/Under 45.5. With a Bills win, I’ll continue to lean hard on the Chiefs by selecting their team total to be Under 17.5.
This single-game parlay isn’t for the meek because betting against Mahomes is typically a fool’s errand. However, Kansas City’s passing offense won’t have much success, so I’ll take Mahomes Under 253.5 passing yards.
The final leg – and we should understand hitting five legs in a SGP is nigh impossible, but let’s have fun shall we? – I’m taking Allen Over 228.5 passing yards.
Quarterbacks like Easton Stick, Aidan O’Connell, and Zach Wilson eclipsed that total this season against the Chiefs, so why not Allen?
