After avoiding Deion Sanders and Colorado when they were facing Oregon and USC the last two weeks, the time has come to jump back on them. The Buffaloes are my top play this week.
I had a disappointing 2-5 record in Week 5. I lost my two-unit play on underdog Kansas against Texas and split my 1-unit plays, winning with South Florida and losing with Arkansas.
Turning things around starts with backing Colorado against Arizona State.
Here’s to a winning Week 6.
Stephen Nover’s TGD Picks Record: 16-17-1 (-6.9 units)
CFB odds used in these betting tips are current as of Tuesday, Oct. 3, at 1:00 a.m. ET
CFB Week 6 Best Bets
Colorado @ Arizona State
BEST BET: Colorado -4 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units
The Buffaloes were the darling of college football under Coach Prime for their first three games, scorching opponents and bookmakers in their first two by upsetting TCU and beating Nebraska before needing overtime to top in-state rival Colorado State.
But reality struck when the Buffaloes had to step up in class. They were buried 42-6 by Oregon two weeks ago and showed great resilience in coming back from a 20-point halftime deficit to cover in a 48-41 loss to USC this past Saturday.
Now Colorado drops way down in class against Arizona State. The 1-4 Sun Devils have forced just one turnover on defense. They have a cluster of injuries on the offensive line and at linebacker.
The Buffaloes benefit from a massive edge at quarterback, where pro prospect Shedeur Sanders boasts a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 165.9 passer rating. Conversely, ASU’s Drew Pyne owns a 2-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Coach Prime holds a strong advantage on ASU’s first-year head coach Kenny Dillingham as well.
Kent State @ Ohio
BEST BET: Under 45.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER 1 Unit
Ohio has one of the best defenses in the country, and Kent State has a terrible offense. This isn’t going to be pretty for the Golden Flashers, nor for the total.
Kent State just might get shut out here. The Golden Flashes average 12.6 points. They rank in the bottom four in scoring, yards per play and yards gained.
Ohio is permitting only 8.5 points per game. The Bobcats rank in the top four for scoring defense, total defense, run defense, and takeaways. If you remove a defensive touchdown scored by Florida Atlantic, the Bobcats have held their last three foes to an average of 5.7 points. Their other opponents in that span were Iowa State and Bowling Green.
So the Bobcats might need to score all of the points, and they’re not that strong offensively. They rank 12th from the bottom in yards per play and have failed to score more than 17 points in three of five games. On the season, Ohio averages just 21 points.
Weather could also aid the Under, with the long-range forecast calling for heavy wind.
Michigan @ Minnesota
BEST BET: Michigan -19 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Michigan is 5-0 and has won all of its games by at least 24 points. I see a similar result here against a disappointing Minnesota squad whose defense is way down from previous seasons.
The Wolverines are averaging 34.4 points a game. They are giving up the fewest points per game at 6.0, and no team has scored more than seven against them. They also have one of the best running backs in the country in Blake Corum.
Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis hasn’t shown to be any better than his predecessor, Tanner Morgan. Kaliakmanis has completed less than 59% of his throws and has just a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Golden Gophers fielded a top-12 defense last season, but this year’s unit is mediocre at best. It ranks 80th in pass defense, 86th in yards per play allowed, and 128th on third downs. Just two weeks ago, the Gophers lost to Northwestern as an 11-point favorite.
Michigan has owned Minnesota recently, winning 25 of the past 27 meetings.
CFB Week 6 Betting Prediction Leans
Alabama @ Texas A&M
BET LEAN: Texas A&M +2.5 (-110)
BetRivers Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I don’t trust Alabama’s offense on the road against this caliber of defense. Texas A&M held Auburn and Arkansas, two run-oriented opponents with mobile quarterbacks, to an average of 16 points. The Aggies can contain Jalen Milroe, who has thrown just three touchdown passes since Week 1.
Max Johnson may be the best backup quarterback in the nation. He’s certainly an adequate replacement for Conner Weigman. A&M also has an elite punt returner in Ainias Smith, who leads the country with an 18.1-yard average.
Old Dominion @ Southern Mississippi
BET LEAN: Over 57.5 (-110)
BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Old Dominion was impressive against Marshall, putting up 41 points and averaging eight yards per play while facing the No. 2 pass defense in the country. The Monarchs are playing extremely fast under new offensive coordinator Kevin Decker, ranking in the top 12 in tempo.
The Monarchs take on Southern Mississippi, whose defense is way down from previous seasons. The Golden Eagles have surrendered an average of 39 points per game, the third-highest total in the country.
Southern Mississippi is respectable on offense, though, averaging 36.5 points in its last two games against Arkansas State and Texas State. Old Dominion’s defensive numbers are skewed because it has played weak offenses.
Nebraska @ Illinois
BET LEAN: Nebraska +3.5 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Two desperate squads seek their first conference win when Nebraska meets Illinois. The Cornhuskers are better coached under Matt Ruhle, but they can’t compete against the Big Boys of the Big Ten. They can, however, defeat the disappointing Illini.
Both teams have records of 2-3. But Illinois is 0-5 ATS, failing to cover the number by an average of 10.4 points per game.
Notre Dame @ Louisville
BET LEAN: Louisville +7 (-110)
Unibet Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Yes, Notre Dame has won 30 straight regular-season games against ACC teams. But over the last 18 years, it hasn’t defeated ranked teams on the road in consecutive weeks.
That’s the Irish’s challenge here, and I believe it’ll be a struggle. They spent a lot of physical and emotional energy the past two weeks, losing in heartbreaking fashion at home to Ohio State and then rallying past No. 17 Duke for a 21-14 win last Saturday.
Louisville is a well-rounded team, ranking 11th in total yards and 38th in total yards allowed.
How To Bet College Football Week 6
Conference games
Most of the remaining regular season games are going to be conference matchups. This means that for those games, you must properly analyze how teams playing non-conference games will do against opponents close to their skill level.
The difference between bad and awful
The key to handicapping many games this weekend is figuring out the difference between bad and awful. Many weak teams are playing each other this weekend, and the trick to picking winners in those games is figuring out the degree to which certain teams are bad.
Some teams are bad, but decent against other poor-performing teams, and other teams just perform poorly against everyone.
Read more about how to bet on college football.
