I finally had a winning college football week, going 5-2. All three of my best bets cashed for the second straight week, including two-unit plays on underdogs California, North Texas, and Georgia Tech.
For Week 10, I’m going with a favorite, underdog and total on my three best bets in hopes of a nine-game win streak.
I’m also living up to my word and staying away from the Over on Iowa-Northwestern despite a low total.
Stephen Nover’s TGD Picks Record: 25-32-2
CFB odds used in these betting tips are current as of Tuesday, Oct. 31, at 11 p.m. ET
CFB Week 10 Best Bets
Ohio State @ Rutgers
BEST BET: Rutgers +18.5 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units
Rutgers is a much improved team, and the situation sets up well for the Scarlet Knights.
After a bye, the Scarlet Knights draw an Ohio State team playing a second consecutive road game for the first time this season.
The 6-2 Scarlet Knights are off to their best start in 11 years, and their defensive numbers are amazingly strong – giving up 15.8 points per game, ranking ninth in total defense and No. 2 in pass defense. Robert Longerbeam is one of the top cornerbacks in the country.
Meanwhile, Kyle Monangai is one of the better running backs in the Big Ten. The Scarlet Knights are run-oriented, which eats clock and is important when taking this many points. Rutgers also has only allowed seven sacks, which is the lowest number in the Big Ten.
Rutgers beat Indiana 31-14 in its last game. Ohio State, by comparison, defeated that same team 23-3 in September.
The Buckeyes could be treating this as a rest stop, having won at Wisconsin last Saturday and knocking off Penn State two weeks ago.
Even at 8-0, this is not a great Buckeyes team. Ohio State has injury concerns, and Kyle McCord is not a star like previous Ohio State quarterbacks – despite having the two best wide receivers in the country in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.
Jacksonville State @ South Carolina
BEST BET: South Carolina -15.5 (-110)
BetMGM • WAGER: 2 Units
Surprised 2-6 South Carolina is more than a two-touchdown favorite against 7-2 Jacksonville State? Don’t be. If anything, the line is actually too short based on who these teams have faced.
Jacksonville State has played a far easier schedule than South Carolina, which opened against North Carolina and has played SEC opponents in each of its last six games.
The Gamecocks have played one of the toughest schedules in the country, making them extremely battle tested. Jacksonville State, on the flip side, has maybe played the easiest schedule.
This will be Jacksonville State’s first game this season against a Power Five program. South Carolina isn’t Eastern Michigan.
The Gamecocks will be taking this game seriously, as a loss would eliminate them from bowl contention. South Carolina’s remaining regular-season games are all at home against Vanderbilt, Kentucky and a disappointing Clemson.
South Carolina has a decent run defense, and quarterback Spencer Rattler has played much better at home for the Gamecocks.
South Carolina ranks 27th in passing yards, and although the Gamecocks are weak in pass defense, that’s not Jacksonville State’s strength.
Notre Dame @ Clemson
BEST BET: Under 45 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units
Clemson and its quarterback, Cade Klubnik, are enduring a disappointing season. The Tigers haven’t broken the 17-point barrier in regulation during their past three games, and they are going to be hard-pressed to exceed that figure against Notre Dame, which has an 11th-ranked defense and is No. 4 in pass defense.
Notre Dame held a number of teams under their typical scoring averages, including USC (by 26 points), Pittsburgh (by 16 points), Ohio State (by 15 points) and Duke (by 12 points).
The Irish are extremely opportunistic, ranking joint-third in takeaways with 13, and Clemson has turned the ball over 15 times. The Tigers could be minus their top rusher, Will Shipley, after he suffered a concussion last week.
Notre Dame is dealing with a major injury, too. Tight end Mitchell Evans is out for the season with a torn ACL. He was Sam Hartman‘s top target and leading receiver, so the Irish may run the ball more, especially since Clemson has the ninth-best pass defense. The Tigers give up the sixth-fewest yards per game in the country.
CFB Week 10 Betting Prediction Leans
Virginia Tech @ Louisville
BET LEAN: Louisville -9.5 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Virginia Tech is a mediocre team that can’t win on the road. The Hokies are 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS away from home, with losses to Rutgers (35-16), Marshall (24-17) and Florida State (39-17).
Louisville is 7-1 and ranked 15th. The Cardinals got back on track from an upset road loss to Pittsburgh by shutting out Duke, 23-0, at home last week. And, yes, Duke quarterback Riley Leonard played and his mobility was OK. He just couldn’t do anything against Louisville’s top-20 defense.
Louisville running back Jawhar Jordan showed he’s back healthy, rushing for 163 yards and two touchdowns against Duke. Jordan should be in line for a big performance against Virginia Tech’s 77th-rated run defense.
Kansas @ Iowa State
BET LEAN: Iowa State -2.5 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I hold tremendous respect for Kansas coach Lance Leipold, but the Jayhawks are in a massive letdown spot after upsetting Oklahoma at home last Saturday.
The fans stormed the field to celebrate one of Kansas’ greatest victories ever. That was win No. 6 for the Jayhawks, making them bowl eligible.
Iowa State is playing its best ball, covering four of its last five games – including the past three. The Cyclones have held their last three opponents, TCU, Cincinnati and Baylor, to an average of 14 points a game.
South Florida @ Memphis
BET LEAN: Over 67.5 (-112)
BetRivers • WAGER: 1 Unit
This is a high total, but it’s more than justified given the offenses, bad defenses and fast tempo of these two teams.
South Florida plays at the second-fast pace in the nation, and there have been at least 70 points scored in four of the Bulls’ last five games.
South Florida ranks 35th in total yards, but is among the bottom 12 in scoring defense and pass defense. The Bulls have surrendered 56 points in two of their last three games.
Memphis has scored 45 points in each of its last two games. The Tigers average 36.8 points but allow 237.1 yards per game and have only five interceptions.
LSU @ Alabama
BET LEAN: Over 60.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Forget Caleb Williams. Jayden Daniels could win the Heisman Trophy – especially if he has a good performance in this matchup against Alabama.
Daniels ranks No. 1 in passing efficiency and is tied for the most touchdown passes with 25. Led by Daniels, LSU is the top offensive team in the nation, averaging 47.4 points and 553 yards per game.
Alabama has a strong defense, but it’s not as dominant as previous years. The Crimson Tide’s balanced attack should prove productive given LSU’s defensive deficiencies. The Tigers give up 26.5 points a game, and they rank 88th in pass defense and 83rd in run defense.
