NFL

Spread

CFB National Championship Props

Posted: Jan 6, 2023Last updated: Jan 10, 2023

The College Football National Championship is finally here. Even though I am disappointed that the season is coming to an end, I am excited to see Georgia and TCU duking it out on Monday night.

Not only can you bet on the moneyline, point total, and spread, but there are several prop bets available. From first halves to alt spreads, there are many great props to choose from.

Below I go over my favorite props and my top angles to attacking the National Championship game.

Note: College football odds are current as of Friday, Jan. 6, and courtesy of the sportsbooks listed.


Keep track of the best CFB lines before the CFP National Championship Game


Best CFB National Championship Props

Georgia -19.5 (+170) at BetRivers Sportsbook

WAGER: 0.5 Units

If this were a regular-season game, I would still bet on Georgia. I am not just betting on them because it is the only game on TV, which is why I am high on them for my CFB National Championship best bets.

They should clobber TCU just like they have done to their opponents all season.

Only Michigan had a higher average scoring margin than UGA this season, as UGA has an average scoring margin of +23.9. TCU has a high average scoring margin as well, but that makes sense when you look at their 13-1 record.

Looking at their wins, they had many close calls this year.

TCU’s luck should run out in the National Championship.

They beat Michigan by only six points in the Fiesta Bowl despite leading by 15 points at halftime. They also beat Baylor by only one point, Texas and Kansas by seven, and Oklahoma State by three.

Georgia, on the other hand, has beaten their strong opponents to a pulp. They beat LSU by 20 points in the SEC Conference Championship Game, Tennessee by 14 points when the Vols were the best team in the country, and Oregon by 46 points.

When the stakes are high, head coach Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs show up.

If you aren’t intimidated by the -12.5 regular spread, I recommend the -19.5 at +170.

Georgia to Score First and Win (-136) at BetRivers

WAGER: 1 Unit

Not only is Georgia going to win big against TCU, but they are going to come out the gate like a Preakness candidate. The best way to bet this theory of mine is to bet on Georgia scoring first and winning at -127 at BetRivers.

If you bet on UGA winning separately, it pays only -435, and a bet on the Bulldogs scoring first pays only -200. If you bet on both happening in the same game (kind of like a same-game parlay), then you get a whooping -136. Considering that both events are correlated with each other, this is a great bet to make.

Georgia is going to want to avoid what happened in the Ohio State game where they were down 21-7 at one point in the second quarter. In that game, the Bulldogs only won by one point off a missed game-ending OSU field goal.

To avoid a nail biter, Smart and Georgia are going to want to start off aggressively, which is why I like this prop.

Georgia 1st Half Spread -7 (-120) at Betway Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

All season long, I have been a broken record in this column. The best prop betting angle by far in college football (besides alt lines in meaningless games) is to nab -6.5 or +7.5 spreads for first or second halves.

For full-game spreads, three is the most important key number. For first- or second-half spreads, seven is the most important key number. That is because 11% of CFB first halves are decided by exactly 7 points, and 12% of second halves are decided by exactly 7 points.

Most books have Georgia as a -7.5 (-110) first-half favorite. Betway and DraftKings have them at -7 (-120) in the first half, which is the best spread.

For most first-half spreads, it isn’t worth it to buy an extra half-point for 10 cents, but from 7.5 to 7, it is a great betting strategy.

If my theory is correct that the Bulldogs will win big and in that win, they will score early, then they will cover their -7 first-half spread. TCU will be a tough opponent for Georgia, but Georgia should still cover easily in the first half.

Author

Kevin Davis

Kevin Davis is a Betting Analyst at The Game Day residing in Hoboken, NJ. Previously a Bronx resident, Kevin got his start betting on sports at his local Bronx barbershop. When sports betting was legalized across the river in Jersey, Kevin was there on the ground floor making regular trips to the Hoboken PATH station or for soup dumplings in Fort Lee. Previously, Kevin has written for The Action Network, and Vegas Insider.

Related articles

Loading...
Create Betslip