College football conference championships are finally here. The weather is cruddy, but the games are not.
From alternate spreads, first- and second-half spreads, and reverse teasers, there are lots of bets to choose from even with a small slate of games.
Below, check out my four favorite CFB props for this weekend.
Note: College football odds are current as of Friday, Dec. 2, and courtesy of the sportsbooks listed.
CFB Conference Championship Prop: LSU vs Georgia
Georgia 1H -9.5 (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
2-Team 6-Point Reverse Teaser (+650) at FanDuel: Michigan -22.5 & Georgia -23.5
WAGER: 1 Unit
Georgia is the CFB National Championship odds favorite. With an undefeated record and the No. 1 seed, the only way they become a No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff is if they barely beat LSU and if Michigan wins big.
That is why I believe that Michigan and Georgia will more than cover their regular spreads. The best way to bet this for the SEC Championship is to include Georgia in a reverse teaser and to bet on them covering the first-half spread.
The Bulldogs have an average scoring margin of +26.4, which is the second-best in the country. Even with playing tough SEC opponents and Oregon, Georgia blows out opponents more than any team other than Michigan.
With a team as strong as Georgia, the difference between -16.5 and -22.5 is very negligible. Additionally, Georgia should come out firing in the first half.
What makes the first-half spread a great bet specifically at FanDuel is that most books have the first half set at Georgia -10 (-110), while FanDuel has it at -9.5 (-120).
The fourth-most frequent margin of victory for CFB first halves is 10 points, as 7% of the time, the team leading at halftime is up by 10. It is worth the extra 10 cents to get UGA at -9.5 rather than -110.
CFB Conference Championship Prop: Toledo vs Ohio
Ohio -6 (+245) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
4-Team 6-Point Reverse Teaser (+6000) at FanDuel: Ohio -3, Fresno State -2.5, Michigan -22.5, & Georgia -23.5
WAGER: .25 Units
Only one team with Ohio in its name is playing for a conference championship this year, and it isn’t Ohio State.
The Ohio Bobcats have clearly been the best team in the MAC this season. I go over this extensively in my Week 13 CFB Best Bets article.
They are a three-point underdog against Toledo, who has been the most overrated MAC team all season. The only reason why Ohio should be an underdog is that their quarterback Kurtis Rourke is out for the season.
Even without Rourke, Ohio’s running game is strong and should take advantage of a vulnerable Toledo rushing defense. That is why I like the Ohio alternate spread of -6 (+245).
In the same spirit of going big on Ohio, I am also bullish on putting them in reverse teasers. FanDuel has six-point reverse teasers that pay +650 for two teams, +2000 for three teams, and +6000 for four teams.
In a reverse teaser, you sell points rather than buy them so the +3 Ohio spread turns into -3 Ohio. The key is to follow the opposite rules of regular teasers, by reverse teasing through zero, not through key numbers and point totals.
The reason why I suggest reverse teasing Ohio in a four- or three-team teaser rather than a two-teamer is that for pushes on two-team reverse teasers, FanDuel refunds your bet if the first leg hits. For three or more teams, FanDuel will pay out for the other legs if they win.
With 3 being the most frequent margin of victory in football, this is the best way to play Ohio -3 in a reverse teaser.
That is why as a prop bettor, you should always read through the terms and conditions, so you can bet props optimally.
Keep track of the latest CFB gameday lines while you choose your best college football bets:
CFB Conference Championship Prop: Fresno State vs Boise State
Fresno State -6 (+260) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
In recent years, Boise State has been the most overrated Mountain West team based on their success in the 2000s and 2010s. They are almost always the favorite to win the conference, even though the conference recently has been competitive.
The Broncos have home-field advantage this weekend, and in their only meeting this season at home, Boise State won, 40-20.
None of this scares me away from Fresno State.
After losing to Boise State, Fresno went on a 7-0 run to qualify for the Mountain West Championship. When you look at their game logs, they beat some teams by huge margins, which is why I believe that not only can they beat Boise State, but they can also beat them by more than a touchdown.
CFB Conference Championship Prop: Purdue vs Michigan
Michigan 2H -8.5 (-110) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Michigan, like Georgia, loves to win big. With an average scoring margin of +27.2, the Wolverines win by a larger margin on average than any FBS team.
Michigan even beat Ohio State on the road as an underdog last weekend, 45-23.
What I have noticed about the Wolverines that makes them different from other dominant teams is that in blowouts, they do better in the second half than in the first half. Just look at their box scores, and you will get the idea.
Against OSU, Michigan lost the first half by three points and won the second half by 25 points. In the Rutgers game, they lost the first half by three points and won the second half by 38 points.
In the infamous Michigan State game, they won the first half by six points and the second half by 16.
Michigan loves turning up the heat in the second half, which is why I like the second-half Michigan spread.
