A rematch of last year’s NCAA championship game will take place this Thursday when No. 1 UConn (33-3) faces off with No. 5 San Diego State (26-10). The Huskies have looked like the NCAA Tournament’s most dominant team thus far, however, the Aztecs will be anything but an easy out.
No matter which side you’re on, there’s money to be made during this year’s Sweet 16 games. Check out our best March Madness bets for UConn vs San Diego State below.
UConn vs San Diego State Odds
Depending on the sportsbook, you can find UConn listed as a 10.5- or 11-point favorite over San Diego State. Given how strong the Huskies have performed through the first two rounds, it’s not surprising to see the Aztecs installed as double-digit underdogs.
The total is set at 135.5 points across the board in our NCAAB odds. UConn has the nation’s second-best offense, per KenPom, but San Diego State’s eighth-ranked defense and slower tempo could help make this a relatively low-scoring game.
UConn vs San Diego State Prediction
UConn 67, San Diego State 60
I generally like to avoid narratives when it comes to sports betting and projections, but it’s impossible to avoid the history between these two programs. Both went on improbable runs to reach the national title game last year before the Aztecs were stomped by the Huskies, 76-59.
UConn has every reason to win again, and although I think it’ll get the job done, this result could be much closer than last year’s. San Diego State has been in this position before, and an improved offense headlined by forward Jaedon Ledee has the potential to cause trouble.
The Aztecs remain committed to the defensive end of the floor as well, where they’ve limited opponents to 40.3% shooting from the field — the 15th-best mark in college basketball. The Huskies rank fifth in field goal percentage (49.8%), so both sides will be tested.
Dan Hurley’s squad should come out on top, but don’t be surprised if San Diego State keeps the deficit under 10 points throughout. The Aztecs will be motivated, and when they’re clicking on both ends of the floor, they have the ability to keep up with any team in the country.
UConn vs San Diego State Best Bets
San Diego State +11 (-110) vs UConn
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This is a lower total, which makes this 11-point spread even more enticing by default. UConn deserves to be such a heavy favorite based on the bulk of its work, but that’s no reason to sleep on San Diego State.
I expect the Aztecs to be within one or two possessions at halftime before that margin slowly begins to slip away down the stretch. If San Diego State can play at its preferred tempo and continue to find good looks from three-point range, it can cover.
The Aztecs are 3-0 against the spread versus ranked opponents this year. Back San Diego State with your best college basketball bet today.
Under 135.5 Points (-105)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Huskies have a stellar offense, but don’t think that they can’t win on either end of the floor. Per KenPom, UConn ranks ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency, and it has allowed just 63.9 points per game this season.
Unders are a combined 36-33-1 for the Huskies and Aztecs in 2023-24. It’s a slight margin, but another Under feels like the most likely outcome at 135.5 points.
