If you have not recovered from daylight savings time yet (if applicable), Week 10 may be the week to catch up! I kid only a little because we will be without the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, and Philadelphia Eagles this week for DFS purposes … and the Los Angeles Rams, if that’s your thing.
The island games do not look appealing on paper, but that’s why we play. As you’ll see throughout the column as it is released, there is always an actionable play.
Do not forget to check out all of The Game Day’s Week 10 fantasy football content. A lot of sharp minds churn out content daily.
Week 10 Thursday Night Football DFS: Panthers @ Bears
The NFL lines used for TNF are current as of Thursday, Nov. 9, at 11:30 a.m. ET., courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Bears -3.5
- Total: 38 Points
Reminder: Use the Table of Contents to the right to easily navigate each section of the weekly DFS article.
For a third game, the Bears are expected to be without Justin Fields (thumb, doubtful). Khalil Herbert (ankle) was designated to return from IR but will likely return in Week 11. The run game will also miss Khari Blasingame (concussion) and OL Nate Davis (ankle).
The defense was already bad, but injuries to multiple players, including Tremaine Edmunds (knee), will lead to depth players getting more time than they should.
Carolina’s injuries will also lead to many marginal players logging time. Laviska Shenault Jr. (ankle) is out, while D.J. Chark (elbow) is doubtful.
The defense is filled with injuries. Brian Burns (concussion/elbow) and C.J. Henderson (concussion) are out, while their starting safeties are questionable.
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Panthers-Bears is not the best way to open any week of football, but we work with what we have. Believe it or not, there are some glimmers of hope for DFS production.
Carolina went pass-heavier in Week 9 with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling plays. It did not lead to an abundance of fantasy points for Bryce Young ($9,800 on DraftKings), but it led to two pick-sixes for the Colts defense.
That “aggressiveness" benefits Adam Thielen ($11,800) and the Bears defense ($4,600) the most. Chicago does not allow many explosive plays and is one of the best run defenses in the NFL (3.3 yards per carry, 1st in the NFL), which means attacking the defense through the air as they do not get to the quarterback.
A pass-first approach hurts Chuba Hubbard ($8,000) and Miles Sanders ($5,200), and while Hubbard has been the RB1 the past few games, Sanders only saw one fewer target and outgained Hubbard in the passing game in Week 9. Young does not push the ball downfield, so expect both to see a handful of targets, especially without Chark and Shenault.
The Bears’ offense has been as bad with Tyson Bagent ($9,200) as with Fields, but the difference is Fields is a dynamic runner, while Bagent does it enough to have it add value to his game. Bagent’s inability to make passes in small windows and pass the ball when airing it out is why he went undrafted.
The shorter field has benefitted Cole Kmet ($6,600) more than D.J. Moore ($10,600) since Bagent stepped into the starting QB role. Moore’s inconsistent workload is a product of his offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy‘s inability to call an offense, especially when needing to make adjustments.
What Getsy has done well (and maybe the only good thing) is make sure D’Onta Foreman ($8,600) has been fed. Foreman was inactive for Weeks 2-5, but once Herbert was hurt, the veteran has been more than useful, topping 20 total touches twice and getting 16 total touches in another contest.
A mix of Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson ($3,600) is almost a lock to keep Bagent from feeling overwhelmed. 30 total rushes between the two is very much in play.
Favorite Thursday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
* Stacks
Captain D’Onta Foreman with Bears DST and Miles Sanders
The number of injuries to pass catchers gives me hope for Sanders. He was a top free agent addition for Carolina, and despite the decreased rushing work, he still sees run in the passing game.
Captain Adam Thielen with Bryce Young and Cole Kmet
I want productive stacks in a game that could lack fireworks. This pairs the most productive receivers (not the best) in a game with a low expected game total.
Jonathan Mingo with Tommy Tremble and Cairo Santos
If the Panthers are wise, Mingo should line up away from Bears CB Jaylen Johnson as often as possible. Mingo is Carolina’s best secondary WR and could be why the Panthers get a big play or two.
Captain Cole Kmet with Tyson Bagent and Hayden Hurst
Two TEs is far from an ideal stack in a bad game, but Hurst has lost his luster, with Tremble playing nearly 50% of snaps. Kmet continues to produce and gets a banged-up Panthers LB corps and secondary.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WRs Equanimeous St. Brown and Tyler Scott ($200)
ESB could be activated from IR for Week 10 and is on the field a lot because of his blocking acumen. Scott probably has the most explosive play ability on the Bears besides Moore.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr. ($400)
It is rare to get a starting WR just above stone minimum, but Marshall has the designation with so many injuries to the Panthers.
RB Raheem Blackshear ($1,000)
The third-string back for Carolina has as many catches in the past two weeks as Sanders. The game script could lead to a lot more Blackshear than we deserve.
RB Darrynton Evans ($1,800)
The last time Chicago had an insurmountable lead was versus Las Vegas in Week 7; Evans finished with 15 total touches and a score. Being a home favorite is why he is in play.
* TNF Captain Picks
D’Onta Foreman ($12,900)
Foreman thrives in one-score games or with the lead. He is averaging 16.25 total touches per game since returning to the Bears RB rotation.
Adam Thielen ($17,700)
Stat collectors thrive on DraftKings, and Thielen has been that for most of his career. His matchup against slot CB Kyler Gordon is winnable, as Gordon has a lot of boom-or-bust coverage.
D.J. Moore ($15,900)
Moore is the most talented player on the slate. If it weren’t for Luke Getsy being associated with Aaron Rodgers, he would not be calling plays, and Moore would be utilized correctly. It’s still an advantageous matchup, and Bagent has targeted the Pro Bowler nine, six, and five times in his three starts.
Cole Kmet ($9,900)
Few TEs should be considered at CPT in Showdown, and because of the matchup, Kmet is one of them. The former golden domer has two blow-up spots with Fields and Bagent.
Week 10 Germany DFS Showdown: Colts @ Patriots
- Spread: Colts -2
- Total: 43 Points
As much of a downer as this game appears to be coming from a marquee matchup in Week 9 in Germany, the Colts and Patriots have enough injuries to cause DFS players to reconsider how to build for this matchup.
Colts CB Julius Brents (quad) and TE Andrew Ogletree (foot) have been ruled out, while WR Josh Downs (knee, $7,000 on DraftKings) and LB Zaire Franklin (knee) are questionable.
New England will be without LT Trent Brown (personal/ankle), CB J.C. Jackson (personal), and DeVante Parker (concussion). Every other Patriot that has been limited or better is expected to play, which is a big boost for a team lacking depth.
This won’t be a surprise, but the Colts and Patriots are not teams that pass more than expected. Both are below average in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), and the Patriots have their worst team since at least 2009 when using Offensive and Defensive EPA.
Mac Jones ($9,200) has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season. His 2.7% Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) is 33rd out of 47 QBs with at least one start and sixth-worst when you shrink the sample size to QBs with four-plus starts.
The talent and team speed is not there for New England. Parker and Kendrick Bourne (ACL) are hurt, JuJu Smith-Schuster (3,800) has a season-high of 51 receiving yards, and Tyquan Thornton ($1,200) can barely get on the field. Their best wideout was Bourne, but now, with Demario Douglas (ankle, $7,800) limited/hurt after showing signs of talent, the Pats might as well give Julian Edelman a call.
The lack of pass-game depth has made Rhamondre Stevenson ($10,400) an afterthought in DFS. He had his best performance of the season last week against Washington and has to find a way to replicate it against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.
Indy has been paced up with and without Anthony Richardson (IR) with mixed results. Gardner Minshew ($10,000) may be the best backup QB in the league, but he has been exposed at times (3 INT Week 6, 4 turnovers Week 7) when pressed into a heavier workload.
If Downs is out Sunday, Minshew will be left with Michael Pittman Jr. ($10,200), Isaiah McKenzie ($2,000), and Alec Pierce ($800) as the top three wideouts. Listing the depth is another way of saying that Jonathan Taylor ($11,400) and Zack Moss ($8,800) could see more work in the passing game.
What we have seen but cannot confirm is Taylor officially taking over as the lead back. We have seen him dominate passing work as each week has passed, with JT getting all five RB targets in Week 9. Last week was also Moss’s first game without double-digit touches since starting Week 2.
Favorite Germany DraftKings Showdown Plays
*Stacks
Captain Rhamondre Stevenson with Patriots DST and Kylen Granson
Stevenson’s value in the passing game will only increase with numerous WR injuries. His biggest competition is Ezekiel Elliott at the goal line. Granson is fourth in targets on the Colts despite missing two games with a concussion.
Captain Michael Pittman Jr. with Gardner Minshew and Hunter Henry
Henry is priced in a dead zone with backup QBs, the kickers, and both defenses. It’s an easy price range to skip over, with so many players priced down to get snaps. I will focus on getting Henry in lineups as the second-most targeted pass catcher on the Patriots.
Matt Gay with Chad Ryland
A kicker stack? Kind of. One thing we saw work Thursday night was having kickers in your lineup with two offenses that could stall out before finding the end zone. The same rule applies here with a healthier Patriots defense and both teams allowing a top 10 3rd down conversion rate.
Captain Jonathan Taylor with Hunter Henry and Isaiah McKenzie
If Taylor is indeed running as the Colts’ RB1, then the salary is accurate. If it goes back to more of a 50/50 timeshare, JT will be a lineup torpedo. Henry and McKenzie offer cheap pivots off popular teammates to pair with the best talent on the slate.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
TE Will Mallory and Mo Alie-Cox ($200)
The rookie should draw in as the TE3 for Indy with Ogletree out. He has shown flashes, including a 2/49/0 Week 2 performance. Alie-Cox has a history of performing when called upon and will run as the TE2.
TE Pharaoh Brown ($200)
New England’s TE3 is the definition of boom-or-bust. In the four games he has fantasy points, he has a total of 7/170/1. In all other games, he doesn’t even have a target.
WR Jalen Reagor ($400)
Reagor has settled with N.E. but has not done much when active. He had a season-high six targets in Week 9 and turned it into one catch.
WR Alec Pierce ($800)
If the second-year receiver plays (questionable, ankle), it will be his best opportunity to produce since Downs is a true question mark for Week 10.
*Captains
Michael Pittman Jr. ($15,300)
New England has you and me playing in the secondary. MPJ could see an even bigger target share if Downs is out.
Hunter Henry ($8,700)
Henry is a punt CPT with no floor and a decent ceiling … if Mac Jones targets him. His price in the salary dead zone sticks out positively for me, and I want to get different with so few players sticking out.
Jonathan Taylor ($17,100)
The best talent in this game is priced as such. You will have to hit the cheap and unique lottery with the more affordable options, with Taylor expected to be a popular CPT.
Demario Douglas ($11,700)
The ankle issue could limit the dynamic rookie, but it is clear that when on the field, he is the best pass catcher for the Patriots. Since their Week 6 bye, Douglas has led the Pats in targets and target rate.
Week 10 DFS Sunday Main Slate
Wide receiver is the position to watch heading into Sunday. Justin Jefferson (hamstring) could be activated off IR, Ja’Marr Chase (back) is expected to play while Tee Higgins (hamstring) is out. Nico Collins (calf) hasn’t practiced any day this week, DK Metcalf (hip) has remained limited, and Cleveland lost two depth wideouts ahead of their road game in Baltimore.
Let’s look at this 10-game slate.
Week 10 Quarterbacks to Target
Joe Burrow (vs HOU), Geno Smith (vs WAS), and Sam Howell (@ SEA)
I thoroughly enjoy watching Howell play, even if he is running for his life weekly. The Commanders have the highest Pass Rate of Expectation (PROE) in the NFL. Just be careful with rostership of mid-level QBs, as paying up is the unique route this slate.
Week 10 Quarterbacks to Consider
Taylor Heinicke (@ ARI), C.J. Stroud (@ CIN), and Dak Prescott (vs NYG)
Despite a blowout win more likely than any other game script, Prescott is in an ideal spot against a decimated Giants roster. As long as Tommy DeVito doesn’t Pick-6 the Giants out of the game immediately, Dak will have time to get his, unlike Week 1 in New Jersey.
Week 10 Running Backs to Target
Christian McCaffrey (@ SF), Joe Mixon (vs HOU), and Kenneth Walker III (vs WAS)
Prior to their bye, the Jaguars allowed 11, 12, and 9 receptions to opposing running backs, including Alvin Kamara‘s 12-catch effort. CMC could flop as a runner and still pay off his salary.
Week 10 Running Backs to Consider
Travis Etienne Jr. (vs SF), Gus Edwards (vs CLE), and Bijan Robinson (@ ARI)
Edwards only saw five rushing attempts Week 9. Was it because of a blowout scenario, or Keaton Mitchell‘s arrival? Mitchell was added to Baltimore’s injury report, which leaves the door open for the incumbent to resume his lead back role in what is seen as a stay-away matchup.
Week 10 Wide Receivers to Target
Tyler Boyd (vs HOU), Amon-Ra St. Brown (@ LAC), and Diontae Johnson (vs GB)
Johnson has a chance to be the forgotten WR1 on the slate, 10 days after beating up Tennessee’s secondary. Packers CB Jaire Alexander (back) has had a down year and is exploitable because of injury.
Week 10 Wide Receivers to Consider
CeeDee Lamb (vs NYG), Jordan Addison (vs NO), and Christian Kirk (vs SF)
Regardless of the improved 49ers defensive front, their secondary is one of the worst in passing situations; their 0.31 Pass EPA is by far the worst in the NFL.
Week 10 Tight Ends to Target
Dalton Schultz (@CIN), T.J. Hockenson (vs NO), and Sam LaPorta (@ LAC)
The Rams and Bengals allow the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing tight ends, according to 4for4. All three should carry rostership, but with Travis Kelce on a bye, it’s a week to consider the top of the position as others pivot for salary savings.
Week 10 Tight Ends to Consider
Trey McBride (vs ATL), Evan Engram (vs SF), and Taysom Hill (@ MIN)
What New Orleans lacks in creativity on offense is made up for when Hill is on the field. We saw the full gamut Week 9, but less passing and more continued carries in the red zone will keep Hill in play.
Week 10 DST to Target
Ravens (vs CLE), Steelers (vs GB), and Bengals (vs HOU)
Paying up at DST is usually frowned upon. I cannot deny that. I still want to roster the Ravens with the Browns down their top three offensive tackles and Baltimore finally healthy.
Week 10 DST to Consider
Cowboys (vs NYG), Falcons (@ ARI), and Cardinals (vs ATL)
We have no idea how Kyler Murray will be used in his first start off an ACL tear, but we know that the backfield is hurt and James Conner has not been activated from IR yet. The Falcons also are top 10 in third downs allowed per game. Arizona can take advantage of a Falcons offense with a higher than expected PROE.
Favorite Week 10 Dart Throws
QB: Baker Mayfield (vs TEN)
RB: Antonio Gibson (@ SEA)
WR: Kyle Phillips (@ TB)
TE: Tanner Hudson (vs CIN)
DST: Jaguars (vs SF)
Week 10 Sunday Night Football DFS Showdown: Jets @ Raiders
- Spread: Jets -1
- Total: 36.5 Points
The Sunday nightcap features an elite pass defense against one of the best wide receivers of the past decade - no matter the game situation.
I love and hate this game because the players that are featured the most are impossible to notice, and at least three of them are in poor spots.
Garrett Wilson ($9,600) is priced at a point that I want to add him in my lineups, but he is attached to Zach Wilson ($8,600) and a depleted Jets offensive line. The Raiders secondary has been anchored by Nate Hobbs and Marcus Peters (questionable, knee) and continues to slow down some of the best receiver units in the NFL.
Las Vegas is the 10th-best defense in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing wideouts.
One of the units better than Vegas at shutting down WRs is the Jets. Their top-ranked secondary allows 5.5 fewer PPR points per game to the position using aFPA, and that includes when Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed missed some time.
What the defenses both lack is the ability to slow running backs. Breece Hall ($11,400) and Josh Jacobs ($11,000) have top six matchups according to aFPA, with Hall locked in to a top three matchup for RBs.
Hall continues to see around 75% of RB touches for the Jets, and Jacobs saw 26 carries (zero targets) in the first game with Antonio Pierce as Raiders head coach.
Like the Jets passing attack, the Raiders can only go as far as the Jets defense and Aidan O’Connell ($8,400) can takes it. The rookie has done little to inspire hope, needing 77 pass attempts to collect 522 yards and a 1:2 TD/INT ratio. Now he has to move the ball against an elite secondary.
Favorite Sunday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
*Stacks
Captain Breece Hall with Jets DST and Jakobi Meyers
This stack is chalky but is difficult to not use as an anchor. I would expect the Jets to bracket Davante Adams, which could lead to more targets for Meyers. The lack of a trustworthy WR3 for the Raiders makes it difficult to pay down and hope for a spike week.
Captain Josh Jacobs with Raiders DST and Tyler Conklin
Majority of Conklin’s Week 9 production came in the 4th quarter. Would it be surprising to see the Jets trailing in Vegas?
Daniel Carlson with Greg Zuerlein
I’m back on my kicker garbage as they continue to be priced at $5,000 or less. Their offenses have enough talent to cross midfield and stall, which is where both can flex their above average kicking talents in a dome.
Captain Davante Adams with Aidan O’Connell and Michael Carter
Adams will have depressed rostership because of his unenviable matchup. That’s enough to zig where others zag to include an elite WR with his QB in a rare salary-saving setup.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WR Xavier Gipson ($200)
The rookie ran as New York’s WR3, playing on 58% of snaps Week 9 and catching both of his targets for 32 yards. With an obvious group of players being targeted, Gipson can help by not just being a savings option, but alter your build with the idea of leaving salary on the table.
TE Austin Hooper ($600)
The veteran had his best snap share since Week 5 because of Pierce’s penchant for running two-TE sets. Raiders TEs have the second-best matchup of their position groups against the Jets.
WRs Tre Tucker ($800) and Hunter Renfrow ($1,000)
Nailing the Raiders WR3 could be the difference if using Raiders WRs. New York is most susceptible to receivers via the slot.
RB Michael Carter ($1,800)
A renewed feeling from the Raiders after letting Josh McDaniels go could be bad news for the traveling Jets. Carter continues to dominate garbage time, getting six catches Week 9 in a three-score loss.
*Captains
Breece Hall ($17,100)
If not for Adams, Hall is the best talent in this game. The Jets have no hope of competing unless Hall carries this offense.
Josh Jacobs ($16,500)
His carry load is elite, but a few targets would go a long way to keeping Jacobs in the conversation as optimal CPT.
Any Wide Receiver
This game could be a throwback to the 1940’s and 50’s with neither team fielding a worthwhile QB and the passing defenses causing problems. A CPT WR is going to be leverage.
Raiders DST ($6,900)
Recommending a DST at the top is a great way to get you to ‘X’ out of this article, but spread it too close, and the total too low to not consider the home defense. Maxx Crosby tends to put on a show in primetime, and the Jets are running out of offensive linemen to roster.
Week 10 Monday Night Football DFS Showdown: Broncos @ Bills
- Spread: Bills -7
- Total: 47 Points
The Broncos enter Monday night in good shape health-wise with an extra day before playing their first game after their bye week. It’s a near-rare experience.
Buffalo, on the other hand, continues to deal with injuries to their secondary. Christian Benford (hamstring) and Micah Hyde (stinger) will miss Week 10. LB Terrel Bernard (concussion) has a chance to play if he clears concussion protocol.
Oil takes on water in terms of offensive scheme. The Broncos are bottom ten in neutral pass rate and Passing Rate Over Expectation. The Bills continue to operate as a top five unit in both categories. It helps explain Stefon Diggs‘ ($12,000 on DraftKings) insane production as well.
Only two other receivers in the NFL can say they have a similar role as the WR1; Diggs has a 31% target share, 30% red zone share, and 41% air yard share in the Buffalo offense.
Despite his large workload, the roles of the remaining Bills pass catchers are fairly defined. Gabe Davis ($7,400) continues to be a field-stretching presence and secondary receiving option, and Dalton Kincaid ($8,400) has ascended as a safety net and large target without Dawson Knox (IR) available.
Khalil Shakir ($4,400) has also added to the passing game in his second season, which in turn has added more weapons for opposing defenses to keep an eye on.
That has meant improved rushing outcomes for James Cook ($10,000). Cook has taken over as the RB1, seeing a 3:1 carry ratio and 2:1 target over Latavius Murray ($1,800).
Speaking of taking over a backfield, Javonte Williams ($7,200) has dominated touches as he has shown improved health. Over the past four games, Williams has played 58% of snaps, has 76% of carries, and 43% of RB targets (and the only reception TD in that span).
His emergence is important as Buffalo continues to struggle keeping LBs and DBs on the field.
Favorite Monday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
*Stacks
Captain Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy with Russell Wilson and Gabe Davis
Injuries make Sutton and Jeudy appetizing, especially priced only $200 apart. Davis may get away from Patrick Surtain II if he follows Diggs. CB Damarri Mathis is by far the worst CB on the Broncos, according to Pro Football Focus.
Captain Josh Allen with Two WR/TE
Allen’s salary makes building around him at CPT difficult, but it is a way to pivot off the traditional CPT WR with QB build, especially if Allen calls his number in goal-to-go situations.
Captain Javonte Williams with Broncos DST and Dalton Kincaid
Williams’ usage makes him a great leverage CPT, while the Broncos improved run defense could lead to more passing for Buffalo; Josh Allen was tied for the most interceptions heading into Week 10.
Captain Dalton Kincaid with Josh Allen and Adam Trautman
Trautman getting starting TE snaps at the minimum will make him chalky. Pairing Trautman with CPT Kincaid is a way to get different while targeting two players with little competition.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
TE Adam Trautman ($200)
The former Saint could be the most rostered cheap option.
WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($200)
Humphrey is a player to consider if you think the Broncos continue to avoid targeting Marvin Mims.
WR Deonte Hardy ($200)
Hardy is the boom-or-bust cheap wideout for Buffalo.
WR Trent Sherfield ($800)
The veteran was needed as a closer target Week 9 as the Bengals pass rush got to Allen. It still only led to a 1/9/0 line on two targets.
RB Samaje Perine ($1,400)
The cheapest of the Broncos RBs, Perine is the RB of choice in two-minute drills (95% snap rate!) and is more likely to be in on 3rd and long over rookie Jaleel McLaughlin as a veteran that is a known quantity as a pass blocker.
*Captains
Stefon Diggs ($18,000)
Diggs has been the definition of alpha WR and will be treated as such by Josh Allen until he is injured or no longer a Bill.
Jerry Jeudy ($10,200)
There is a calculated risk with Jeudy at CPT. He plays fewer snaps than Courtland Sutton, and has been on the short end of the TD-scoring stick. I would not be shocked to see DFS players see that as a way to lean towards Sutton as the WR to put in CPT in Denver builds.
Josh Allen ($18,900)
Pairing Allen with Diggs is a way to build with Diggs at CPT, but if I want to get different, it is to have Allen at the top and not make a stack that focuses on one pass catcher when I can pair multiple and save salary.
Russell Wilson ($14,100)
Wilson could be forgotten as a CPT because of where the game is being played. Wilson’s yards per attempt has been elevated on the road because of game script, but against an ailing defense, Russ could…cook…and get paired with his top wideouts in a unique build.
