Welcome to Week 9! I was about 20 total yards split over four props from a stellar showing last week, but close doesn’t cut it and I ended up at 5-6.
With my betting record hovering around the .500 mark on the season, let’s see if we can dig into some NFL prop bets that are looking either too high or too low and try to turn a close stellar week into a real stellar week.
All NFL Week 9 odds and lines are current as of November 5 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make in Week 9
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Best NFL Player Props Week 9
Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens
Kirk Cousins: Over 274.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Kirk Cousins has been extremely hit-or-miss this season with three games over 300 passing yards and two games under 205 passing yards, including a season-low 184 last week. However, his lows have come against teams with relatively good pass defenses, and Baltimore’s pass defense is quite the opposite.
The Ravens have allowed a league-worst 312.3 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. While they may be well-rested coming off a bye, they failed to materially improve their defense at the trade deadline.
The Vikings will likely be playing from behind in this one, so we should see upwards of 35 pass attempts from Cousins and close to 300 passing yards.
Justin Jefferson: Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
I just mentioned how Baltimore’s secondary gives up a lot of yards to opposing quarterbacks, so it’s no surprise that they rank in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed to wide receivers.
Outside of an absolute stinker last week, Justin Jefferson has been a stud this season and has topped this prop total in four of his last five games. He’s averaging nine targets per game on the year and should be heavily involved again in Week 9 as Cousins will likely be throwing the ball quite a bit.
Adam Thielen: Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
I won’t belabor the Ravens’ secondary point again, but Jefferson shouldn’t be the only person who benefits from that and Adam Thielen‘s prop total is 17 yards lower!
Thielen has seen 22 targets over his last two games combined, resulting in 17 catches and 204 receiving yards. Like Jefferson, Thielen should see plenty of work in a game where Minnesota will likely be playing catch-up according to our NFL gameday odds.
Minnesota Vikings wide receivers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson appear primed for success against the Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 9. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Mike Gesicki: Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
DeVante Parker was placed on the IR on Friday, which means Mike Gesicki (and Jaylen Waddle) are likely to eat this Sunday. Gesicki only saw four targets that went for 48 receiving yards when Parker played last week, but he averaged eight targets and 81 receiving yards in the three games Parker missed previous to that.
The Houston Texans, for their part, are allowing 61 yards per game to opposing tight ends, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. Accordingly, Gesicki should have plenty of opportunities to hit this prop against Houston’s generous defense.
Brandin Cooks: Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Brandin Cooks is having a monster year and has eclipsed this prop’s yardage total in five of his eight games. He’ll also benefit from the return of Tyrod Taylor this week, who looked his way quite a bit to start the season before going down with a hamstring injury in Week 2.
While the Miami Dolphins mostly kept the Buffalo Bills in check last weekend, they’ve struggled against wideouts so far in 2021 and have allowed 195.4 yards per game to opposing receivers — fourth-worst in the NFL.
Look for Cooks to have another strong performance against Miami’s lackluster defense.
Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel: Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I hit on Deebo Samuel last week, so I’m going back to the well this week.
While the Arizona Cardinals have been stingy against opposing receivers, Deebo is basically it for the 49ers. He’ll have to compete with George Kittle for targets this week, but Samuel has seen at least eight targets in every game while compiling at least 90 receiving yards in five of his seven games this season.
Samuel is questionable with a calf injury for Week 9, however, so keep an eye on his status before locking in your bets.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
The Cardinals are stingy against opposing quarterbacks as well, but Jimmy Garoppolo has a couple of things going for him this week.
To start, he’s coming off a season-high 322 passing yards against the Chicago Bears last week. And, perhaps more importantly, he’ll get his security blanket back this week in George Kittle.
While I wouldn’t be shocked if Jimmy G struggles to top 230-240 yards this week, we only need 220 to cash our NFL bet of the day here.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today
Best Bet: Jarvis Landry Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
While Jarvis Landry is never going to put up huge yardage totals, he’s going to see a ton of usage with Odell Beckham Jr. not suiting up this week. Landry has seen 18 targets over his last two games combined and will likely see double digits this week.
Landry will also get to face a Cincinnati Bengals secondary that ranks in the bottom half of the league in terms of yards per game allowed to opposing receivers. After netting 65 receiving yards last week, Landry should amass a comparable total on Sunday.
Best Bet: Darren Waller Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
Darren Waller has been very steady over his last five games, tallying between 45 and 65 receiving yards while averaging around seven targets per contest. He should start seeing a few more looks from Derek Carr as well with Henry Ruggs III no longer on the roster.
The New York Giants are relatively decent against opposing tight ends, but Waller should see enough volume this week to push him over the top here.
Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Props Betting Record: 20-20, +1.05 Units
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 9 Player Prop Bets! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 9 Best Prop Bets.
