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In 2020, the Buffalo Bills wasted no time taking advantage of Tom Brady‘s exit from the AFC East, which finally snapped the Patriots’ extensive stretch of dominance in the division. Buffalo got to the brink of the Super Bowl before succumbing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game and now enters 2021 with even loftier expectations. The Game Day is here to preview some of the best Bills prop bets for 2021.
Bills Prop Bets 2021: Best Buffalo Odds + Betting Picks
Bills Prop Bets 2021: Team Bet Picks
Buffalo Bills To Win AFC East (-155)
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The Bills have been a model team in terms of consistent improvement since going 6-10 during Sean McDermott’s second season in 2018. Buffalo impressively flipped that record the following year before ascending to 13-3 and nearly making a Super Bowl appearance in 2020. The development of Josh Allen has naturally been key to the entire surge, with the dynamic quarterback earning himself a six-year, $258 million extension August 6 after an MVP-caliber 2020.
Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Devin Singletary and the team’s stalwart offensive line returns in 2021, as does the major components of an impressive defense that gave up some yardage at times but frequently made plays when it counted. The remaining teams in the division all have more question marks than Buffalo, especially at the quarterback position, where Tua Tagovailoa, Cam Newton and Zach Wilson will enter 2021 with plenty to prove.
The Dolphins will arguably be Buffalo’s toughest competition again after finishing 10-6 and barely missing out on the playoffs in 2020. Newton may also be much smoother in New England’s system in Year 2, while Bill Belichick will get back some important pieces on defense that opted out of the 2020 season.
Nevertheless, if Allen, Diggs and Beasley remain healthy and offseason addition Emmanuel Sanders proves to be an adequate replacement for John Brown, Buffalo will have enough to take the crown for the second straight season.
Buffalo Bills To Win AFC Championship (+600)
Assuming they’ll have a division title and potential home-field advantage for at least one playoff game in hand, the Bills will have a manageable route to getting right back to the AFC Championship Game.
There’s a good chance the Bills find themselves staring down Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs again for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but there’s reason to believe they could be much better equipped to handle that challenge this time around. It may be easy to forget that Buffalo had an early 9-0 lead in last January’s title game.
While Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce ultimately proved too much for the Bills that day, the Chiefs will head into this season with a receiver corps that’s thin beyond Hill and a wideout attempting to fill a starting role full-time for the first time in Mecole Hardman.
The Chiefs are still naturally the favorites in this market as the defending champs, but the price on the Bills and the strong probability they can take the next step makes the wager worthwhile.
Buffalo Bills To Win Super Bowl LVI (+1200)
And so we arrive at this wager. If McDermott’s squad can ultimately overcome its AFC obstacles, they’ll have a chance to play in the franchise’s first Super Bowl since the end of the 1993 season. They could well encounter a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team trying to repeat in that contest, which would certainly prove a daunting task.
However, if the Bills do reach this point, it will almost certainly be because Allen has likely exceeded his spectacular 2020 exploits (4,965 total yards, 45 total TDs) and second-year back Zack Moss has taken a notable leap forward in his sophomore campaign while forming a dynamic backfield duo with Singletary. It also likely would mean the defense has tightened up even further.
Quarterback is always integral to NFL success, and the Bills undoubtedly have that question answered with an elite two-way threat. Therefore, like the AFC Championship bet, this wager is worth a shot at the current price.
Jan 16, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) celebrates his touchdown with teammates against the Baltimore Ravens during the third quarter of an AFC Divisional Round game at Bills Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Bills Prop Bets 2021: Player Bet Picks
Josh Allen Over 4500.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Allen threw for 4,544 yards over 16 games last season, and that was with three sub-200-yard games factored in. He completed a whopping 62 passes of over 20 yards on his way to eight 300-yard efforts, along with a solid 8.9 aDOT. The 25-year-old’s completion percentage saw a major boost from a pair of sub-60-percent seasons to 69.2 percent in 2020. The addition of Diggs certainly helped, considering Buffalo had just a 3.5-percent receiver drop rate for the season.
With the addition of an extra regular-season game this year and the Bills’ stated goal of expanding athletic tight end Dawson Knox‘s role in the offense, I see this is a manageable threshold for Allen to reach if he remains mostly healthy.
Josh Allen Over 34.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)
Allen threw for 37 touchdowns a year ago over 16 games despite going without a scoring throw in two games and passing for just one in another. Diggs, Beasley, Sanders and Knox should prove to be a formidable pass-catching group, and Allen should be even further along in his development and grasp of the offense after last season. The Bills will give Moss and Singletary their fair share of red-zone touches again, but given the expected firepower of the offense and the fact Allen would need to average just a tick over two touchdown throws per game for this to hit, it’s worth a shot.
Stefon Diggs Over 1,350 Receiving Yards (-115)
As already alluded to, Diggs is one of the primary reasons for Allen’s handsome new contract, as the star wideout was an instant hit in Buffalo with a 127-1,535-8 line on 166 targets last season. His 76.5 percent catch rate was superb, and although the 166 targets were a career-high, it’s not out of the question he approaches that figure again in a healthy 17-game season.
With this number nearly 200 yards fewer than his 2020 figure and the connection between him and Allen already elite, Diggs is a strong candidate for the Over in this offense.
