If you have been following my Super Bowl simulation article since the start of the playoffs, then you are in good shape for the big game. I recommended the Chiefs and the Eagles as my best bets, and now both teams are playing each other.
Even though the edges are smaller for the Super Bowl than at the beginning of the playoffs, there are still good bets to be found.
For the Super Bowl specifically, I simulated the game 25,000 times to find the best alternate line and margin of victory markets.
To figure out my best Super Bowl bets, I simulated the remaining playoff games 25,000 times. Below, check out who I like to win the Super Bowl and more.
Super Bowl 2023 Simulation
As of Tuesday, Jan. 31, NFL odds list the Eagles as a two-point favorite over the Chiefs. For my Super Bowl simulation, I set the Eagles as only a .75-point favorite over the Chiefs, which is not too different from the betting odds. Line moves between zero and two points don’t tend to be that meaningful in football.
Find the top NFL futures to bet on during the season and playoffs.
For my simulation, I take each teams projected point total and have excel randomly pick a point total 25,000 times for each team based on how pre-game team totals have historically deviated from the final score. Based on simulating this many times, I have a good idea on the probability of every single outcome.
Super Bowl Alternate Line Simulation Results
| Chiefs Alt Line | Percentage | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| -14.5 | 12.5% | 702 |
| -14 | 13.3% | 650 |
| -13.5 | 14.2% | 602 |
| -13 | 15.0% | 566 |
| -12.5 | 15.8% | 531 |
| -12 | 16.7% | 498 |
| -11.5 | 17.7% | 465 |
| -11 | 18.8% | 432 |
| -10.5 | 19.7% | 406 |
| -10 | 20.7% | 382 |
| -9.5 | 21.8% | 358 |
| -9 | 22.9% | 337 |
| -8.5 | 24.0% | 316 |
| -8 | 25.2% | 297 |
| -7.5 | 26.4% | 279 |
| -7 | 27.7% | 260 |
| -6.5 | 29.1% | 244 |
| -6 | 30.4% | 229 |
| -5.5 | 31.8% | 214 |
| -5 | 33.1% | 202 |
| -4.5 | 34.5% | 190 |
| -4 | 35.7% | 180 |
| -3.5 | 37.0% | 170 |
| -3 | 38.5% | 160 |
| -2.5 | 40.0% | 150 |
| -2 | 41.5% | 141 |
| -1.5 | 43.0% | 132 |
| -1 | 44.5% | 125 |
| -0.5 | 46.0% | 117 |
| 0 | 47.5% | 111 |
| 0.5 | 49.1% | 104 |
| 1 | 50.5% | -102 |
| 1.5 | 52.0% | -109 |
| 2 | 53.4% | -115 |
| 2.5 | 54.9% | -122 |
| 3 | 56.5% | -130 |
| 3.5 | 57.9% | -138 |
| 4 | 59.4% | -146 |
| 4.5 | 60.9% | -156 |
| 5 | 62.4% | -166 |
| 5.5 | 63.8% | -177 |
| 6 | 65.3% | -188 |
| 6.5 | 66.5% | -198 |
| 7 | 67.8% | -211 |
| 7.5 | 69.1% | -223 |
| 8 | 70.4% | -238 |
| 8.5 | 71.6% | -253 |
| 9 | 72.8% | -268 |
| 9.5 | 74.1% | -286 |
| 10 | 75.3% | -304 |
| 10.5 | 76.3% | -322 |
| 11 | 77.5% | -345 |
| 11.5 | 78.7% | -368 |
| 12 | 79.7% | -393 |
| 12.5 | 80.8% | -421 |
| 13 | 81.9% | -452 |
| 13.5 | 82.8% | -480 |
| 14 | 83.6% | -512 |
| 14.5 | 84.5% | -544 |
| 15 | 85.2% | -577 |
| 15.5 | 86.1% | -617 |
| 16 | 86.9% | -665 |
| 16.5 | 87.7% | -715 |
| Eagles Alt Line | Percentage | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| -16.5 | 12.3% | 715 |
| -16 | 13.1% | 665 |
| -15.5 | 13.9% | 617 |
| -15 | 14.8% | 577 |
| -14.5 | 15.5% | 544 |
| -14 | 16.4% | 512 |
| -13.5 | 17.2% | 480 |
| -13 | 18.1% | 452 |
| -12.5 | 19.2% | 421 |
| -12 | 20.3% | 393 |
| -11.5 | 21.3% | 368 |
| -11 | 22.5% | 345 |
| -10.5 | 23.7% | 322 |
| -10 | 24.7% | 304 |
| -9.5 | 25.9% | 286 |
| -9 | 27.2% | 268 |
| -8.5 | 28.4% | 253 |
| -8 | 29.6% | 238 |
| -7.5 | 30.9% | 223 |
| -7 | 32.2% | 211 |
| -6.5 | 33.5% | 198 |
| -6 | 34.7% | 188 |
| -5.5 | 36.2% | 177 |
| -5 | 37.6% | 166 |
| -4.5 | 39.1% | 156 |
| -4 | 40.6% | 146 |
| -3.5 | 42.1% | 138 |
| -3 | 43.5% | 130 |
| -2.5 | 45.1% | 122 |
| -2 | 46.6% | 115 |
| -1.5 | 48.0% | 109 |
| -1 | 49.5% | 102 |
| -0.5 | 50.9% | -104 |
| 0 | 52.5% | -111 |
| 0.5 | 54.0% | -117 |
| 1 | 55.5% | -125 |
| 1.5 | 57.0% | -132 |
| 2 | 58.5% | -141 |
| 2.5 | 60.0% | -150 |
| 3 | 61.5% | -160 |
| 3.5 | 63.0% | -170 |
| 4 | 64.3% | -180 |
| 4.5 | 65.5% | -190 |
| 5 | 66.9% | -202 |
| 5.5 | 68.2% | -214 |
| 6 | 69.6% | -229 |
| 6.5 | 70.9% | -244 |
| 7 | 72.3% | -260 |
| 7.5 | 73.6% | -279 |
| 8 | 74.8% | -297 |
| 8.5 | 76.0% | -316 |
| 9 | 77.1% | -337 |
| 9.5 | 78.2% | -358 |
| 10 | 79.3% | -382 |
| 10.5 | 80.3% | -406 |
| 11 | 81.2% | -432 |
| 11.5 | 82.3% | -465 |
| 12 | 83.3% | -498 |
| 12.5 | 84.2% | -531 |
| 13 | 85.0% | -566 |
| 13.5 | 85.8% | -602 |
| 14 | 86.7% | -650 |
| -14.5 | 87.5% | -702 |
As you would expect, my simulation results are largely in line with the Super Bowl odds being offered. Next to the World Cup, the Super Bowl is the hardest market in the world to beat, so if my numbers deviated significantly from the market, then I would need to have my head examined.
Despite an efficient market, there are some small edges to be found on the Kansas City Chiefs in the alt-line markets.
Almost every legal book offers alternate lines, which means that there are many opportunities for bettors to cash this year. Generally, what I have found is you don’t want to sell points past -7 on the Chiefs, and you don’t want to buy points past +2.5.
With odds changing and promotional offers coming out of the woodwork, there are likely to be more alt-line betting opportunities as we get closer to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Winning Margin Simulation Results
| Chiefs Winning Margin | Percentage | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | 18.41% | 443 |
| 7-12 | 13.25% | 655 |
| 13-18 | 8.58% | 1066 |
| 19-24 | 4.62% | 2066 |
| 25-30 | 1.80% | 5443 |
| 31-36 | 0.67% | 14781 |
| 37-42 | 0.12% | 80545 |
| 43+ | 0.05% | 192208 |
| Eagles Winning Margin | Percentage | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | 18.99% | 427 |
| 7-12 | 14.31% | 599 |
| 13-18 | 9.68% | 933 |
| 19-24 | 5.39% | 1755 |
| 25-30 | 2.66% | 3659 |
| 31-36 | 1.07% | 9228 |
| 37-42 | 0.29% | 34147 |
| 43+ | 0.10% | 104067 |
In the same simulation where I looked at alt-line pricing, I also looked into winning margin props for Super Bowl. Winning margin props are when you bet on who wins the Super Bowl and what range of points the margin of victory will be.
Generally, you bet on bands of six points, but some books offer smaller or larger bands of points. Winning margin bets can be lucrative as the shortest odds are around +300, and the longest odds are +10000.
Despite the lucrative payouts, most winning margin bets are worth avoiding like the plague. There is too much deviation to be attracted to the Chiefs or Eagles to win by 1-6 points markets, and not enough deviation for the other markets.
- Read more NFL expert analysis in our Chiefs vs Eagles prediction for Super Bowl 57.
If you are betting on winning margin markets because it’s a fun bet, my advice is to avoid the big payouts and go for the smaller paying wagers.
The Chiefs won the Super Bowl by 43 or more points in only 0.05% of my simulations, yet their +10000 odds suggest a breakeven price of around 1%. With a house edge that big, you are better off setting your money on fire.
On the other hand, if you bet on the Chiefs to win by 13-18 points at +1000, the house edge is much smaller as that happened in 8.6% of my simulations, and the breakeven price odds are 9.1%, for only a 0.5% house edge.
Even though Chiefs to win by 13-18 points is not a good bet to make, the house edge is still less than the house edge if you are playing perfect basic strategy at blackjack.
Best Super Bowl Bets
Chiefs -7 (+288) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Wager: 0.5 Units
Chiefs +2.5 (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
Wager: 0.5 units
Generally, with championship betting for any league, the good value bets dry up as more games are played during the season and playoffs. By time the championship rolls around, the good betting options are slim.
Despite this, there are still some small edges to be found in the alt-line markets on the Kansas City Chiefs with these NFL bets of the day.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes played injured in the AFC Championship Game, and he looked like he was in pain. Additionally, three of his receivers are injured. Despite this, I am bullish on the Chiefs.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts also is injured, and his performance in the NFC Championship Game wasn’t strong. This is easy to not notice as the Eagles were able to win by establishing the run, and the 49ers had injuries to all three of their quarterbacks.
Seven is a key number in the NFL as it is the second-most common margin of victory. That is why for alt-lines, Chiefs -7 (+288) is the best number for selling points on the Chiefs.
For buying points, buying the Chiefs up half a point to -115 at BetMGM is an even better price than the mainline spread of +2 (-110), since 3.9% of NFL games are decided by exactly two points.
