The tough times returned last week after a limited run of better outcomes, but I am heading into NFL Week 12 with a short memory, much like a cornerback must do.
As we head into the Week 12 NFL schedule, I have a good handle on which teams are starting to turn things around while others may be stuck in their doldrums. A strong surge to an improved picks record should be ahead.
Scott Engel 2022 NFL Props Record: 46-88 (-51.5 units)
Before reading Scott’s picks, toggle the widget below for our full list of NFL Week 12 player props:
NFL Player Props Week 12
NFL Week 12 odds used for prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 23.
Parris Campbell: Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs Steelers
WAGER: 2 Units
Campbell has recorded stat lines of 67 and 76 yards in his last two games with Matt Ryan back as the QB starter for Indianapolis.
The Steelers have allowed the most receiving yards to WRs this season among AFC teams. Campbell is staying healthy and he should clear the 80-yard receiving bar for the first time this season.
Geno Smith: Over 251.5 Passing Yards (-115) vs Raiders
WAGER: 2 Units
Smith has passed for 275 yards in each of his past two games, so I like this play as a top Week 12 NFL bet.
Las Vegas’ pass defense ranks 24th in the league and Smith doesn’t simply rely on DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to roll up his yardage numbers. He has done a good job of spreading the ball around based on what he sees defensively.
Michael Carter: Anytime TD Scorer (+150) vs Bears
WAGER: 1 Unit
The switch to Mike White can potentially elevate the Jets’ offense to respectability, and this is a prime matchup for running back TDs.
Carter rushed a TD in each of White’s two starts where he finished the game last season. The Bears have allowed an NFC-high 12 rushing TDs to running backs.
Miles Sanders: Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-115) vs Packers
WAGER: 1 Unit
Sanders has not been able to get past the projected number in his last two games, but this is a bounce-back spot for him. He has still been able to clear the total in six of 10 games played this season.
The Packers rank 28th in rushing yards allowed to RBs over the last four weeks, and 30th over the full season.
Lamar Jackson: Anytime TD Scorer (+160) at Jaguars
WAGER: 1 Unit
Jackson rushed for a TD against Carolina last week, and with not much to count on in the passing game right now, he may elect to attempt to punch the ball into the end zone himself more frequently.
The Jaguars rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks, so there is a good chance that Jackson can score from outside the goal line area. Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones have also rushed for TDs against Jacksonville this season.
Terry McLaurin: Anytime TD Scorer (+160) vs Falcons
WAGER: 1 Unit
McLaurin has only two TD receptions this season, but he has a good matchup to notch number three this week. The Falcons have allowed 13 TD receptions to wide receivers, tied for second-most in the NFL.
Washington’s No. 1 wide receiver has been targeted 27 times in his past three games and should take advantage of this friendlier draw on the schedule. The Commanders have faced five pass defenses in the top half of the league in their past six games.
You can also consider dropping two units for Taylor Heinicke to go over 213.5 passing yards at -115.
NFL Prop Bets Week 12
Buccaneers vs Browns: TB Over 23.5 Total Points (+100)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Tampa Bay looked like it was starting to hit its stride on offense in Week 10, scoring 21 points against a Seattle defense that had allowed 16.5 points per game in its previous four matchups. The running game came to life under Rachaad White (105 rushing yards) and Chris Godwin caught his first TD pass of the season.
Tom Brady has been sacked once in his past two games and the Buccaneers’ offense appears to be getting into better form in time for the playoff push. The Browns have allowed 70 points in their last two games.
Falcons vs Commanders: WAS Over 22.5 Total Points (-120)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
As indicated in my Week 12 fantasy football sleeper picks feature, I am expecting the Commanders to provide a satisfactory amount of offensive production against Atlanta. The Falcons rank 30th in total defense and allow 24.9 points per game.
Washington has scored 55 points in its past two games, including 32 points against Philadelphia’s second-ranked defense, which allows 18.3 points per game.
Bengals vs Titans: CIN 11-20 Total Points Band (+170)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Tennessee may feature the best defense that no one seems to talk about. The Titans have not allowed more than 20 points since Week 3, and they allow 18.5 points per game overall.
In Week 9, the Titans held the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (30.0 points per game) to 20 points, and that feat was accomplished in overtime. The Bengals have scored 30-plus points in their last four victories, but they won’t be able to gun their way to a win in this matchup.
Saints vs 49ers: SF -6 1H (-105)
WAGER: 1 Unit
We saw the potency of the fully unleashed and newly assembled 49ers offense in a rout of the Cardinals on Monday night. The Saints simply do not have the ammo needed to keep pace, especially on the road against the NFL’s best defense.
New Orleans averages 7.6 points per game on the road, which ranks 26th in the league.
Broncos vs Panthers: Under 3.5 Total TDs (-105)
WAGER: 1 Unit
In this game, we have an ideal recipe for many types of Under wagers. One offense is broken and can’t seemingly be fixed, and another is being led by a failed reclamation project who is making his first start of the season against a top defense.
Denver is averaging a league-low 14.7 points per game, and Russell Wilson cannot effectively carry an offense as a centerpiece. He also does not have the support of a respectable ground attack.
The Panthers average 18.8 points per game, which ranks 25th in the NFL, and Carolina now turns back to Sam Darnold against a Broncos defense that allows 17.1 points per game.
Raiders vs Seahawks: SEA -6 (+120)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Seattle had a week off to fix the issues that led to the end of a four-game winning streak vs. Tampa Bay. During the win streak, they averaged 28.5 points per game while allowing the 16.5 points per game that I previously cited.
The Seahawks are favored by just 3.5 points, but I’m comfortable taking the alternate six-point spread, especially at +120 odds. Despite the Raiders coming off a thrilling win against the Broncos, the Seahawks are clearly the better team and I believe Pete Carroll will have them well-prepared to score a decisive win at home.
Expect the Seattle defense to rebound after it was torn up on the ground and did not muster a pass rush against the Buccaneers.
