I broke even at 6-6 in my NFL prop picks last week and enter NFL Week 11 on a more steady path since recently putting a bad start in the rearview. In two of the past three weeks, I have hit on four of six player props.
Key stats always back up my prime plays, but intangibles cannot be totally overlooked, and factor into having additional confidence in the Bears, Bengals, and Jets.
Scott Engel 2022 NFL Props Record: 44-78 (-40.5 units)
Before reading Scott’s picks, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Week 11 player props:
NFL Player Props Week 11
NFL Week 11 odds used for prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and are current as of Friday, Nov. 18.
Saquon Barkley: Over 97.5 Rushing Yards (-115) vs Lions
WAGER: 2 Units
This wager almost seems too easy, tempting me to go higher than 2 units. The Lions have the worst rushing defense in the NFC, allowing 160.9 rushing yards per game.
Saquon Barkley faced the Texans, who have the worst rushing defense in the AFC and the NFL last week, and he rushed for 152 yards. He has soared past this projected rushing yardage total twice in his last three games.
Justin Fields: Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+200) at Falcons
WAGER: 2 Units
Justin Fields’ incredible rushing exploits should not fully overshadow his success as a passer. Fields has thrown eight TD passes in his last three games and should fly past the projected total again in a prime matchup.
Atlanta has the worst pass defense in the NFL and has allowed 15 TD passes, which is tied for No. 23 in the league. This is a great defensive draw for Fields and a top Week 11 NFL bet.
- Check out the latest NFL Week 11 Odds for more on the upcoming slate of games.
Dak Prescott: Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Vikings
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Vikings may have won eight of nine games, but they certainly have not been shutting down opposing passes games while ascending to an elite perch in the NFC. Minnesota ranks No. 29 in pass defense, allowing 262.9 yards per game.
Dak Prescott passed for 265 yards last week against Green Bay’s fourth-ranked pass defense, and 250 yards in his previous game against Chicago’s No. 10-ranked pass defense.
Tee Higgins: Anytime TD Score (+140) at Steelers
WAGER: 1 Unit
Ja’Marr Chase is out, so Tee Higgins is obviously the top playmaker in the passing game for the Bengals, and he has a good matchup this week. The Steelers have allowed 13 TD receptions to wide receivers, which is tied for the most in the NFL.
On Oct. 23, Joe Burrow faced the Falcons, who have allowed 12 TD passes to WRs, and he tossed three scoring passes. Even without Chase, Burrow should take advantage of a friendly draw and he will get the ball to Higgins in the end zone.
Michael Carter: Anytime TD Scorer (+165) at Patriots
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Jets want to show they can beat Bill Belichick for the first time since 2015 and their last win at New England came in a 2011 playoff game. At some point, the Jets will be fighting to get into the end zone and Michael Carter will have a chance to score.
Carter has 16 rushing attempts in the red zone this season, as compared to one for James Robinson. Carter rushed for a TD against Buffalo in the Jets’ last game from six yards out and he is capable of scoring near the goal line or outside of the 10-yard line.
Michael Pittman: Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs Eagles
WAGER: 1 Unit
Philadelphia should be able to hold Michael Pittman Under the projected yardage total in a rebound performance after absorbing its first loss of the season. The Eagles have allowed the lowest amount of receiving yards to WRs among NFC teams this season.
Pittman was limited to 53 yards last week by the Raiders, who rank No. 27 in receiving yards allowed to WRs over the past four weeks. If this game gets into a “garbage time” script, Pittman may also watch from the sidelines for a while rather than the Colts risking an injury with him.
NFL Prop Bets Week 11
Bears vs Falcons: CHI Over 26.5 Total Points (-115)
WAGER: 2 Units
This same team and total points prop bet hit against Detroit last week, and I am going back to it against another awful defense while upping the wager by 0.5 units. Chicago has lost three straight games, but the offense is engaging in consistent shootouts.
Atlanta ranks 27th in points per game allowed (25) and 31st in yards allowed. The Bears have averaged 31 points per game over their last four.
Lions vs Giants: NYG 21-30 Total Points Band (+160)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Giants have scored in this range in all four of their last wins, which have come in the last five games. Even in a very friendly defensive matchup, they don’t have the offensive ammo to go over 30 points, yet getting to 21 should be easy vs Detroit.
Detroit allows 29.3 points per game, the most in the NFL, and the Lions are also last in the league in total defense.
Jets vs Patriots: NYJ -3 Alternate Spread (+166)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Jets want to dish out payback for a Week 8 loss to New England while breaking the Patriots’ 13-game winning streak in this rivalry. Beating New England will officially mark New York as one of the better teams in the AFC and not as being a notch below the best in their own division.
Mac Jones has seven interceptions in six games played this season, and the Jets’ defense sacked him six times in the first meeting. If Zach Wilson plays respectably as he did against Buffalo, New York will gain much more respect by having knocked off the Bills and Patriots in consecutive games.
Steelers vs Bengals: PIT Under 18.5 Points (-115)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Cincinnati is going to come into this one with the intent of getting even after losing to Pittsburgh in the season opener.
The Steelers have cracked the projected total once in their last three games, and they average just 15.6 points per game. Cincinnati allows 20.6 points per game and will fare better than New Orleans did when it allowed 20 points to Pittsburgh in a Week 10 loss.
Eagles vs Colts: PHI Over 2.5 1st Half TDs (+110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
It should not be a total shock that the Commanders hung with and ultimately toppled the Eagles, as we can always see a lesser-respected team get the best of a divisional opponent. After losing its first game of the year, Philadelphia will leave no doubt that it still belongs at the top of the NFL power rankings by running away early in a one-sided affair.
Jeff Saturday was able to guide his team to a win over the Raiders, but the Eagles lead the league in first-half scoring (19.5 per game) and will want to deliver the quick knockout punch.
Raiders vs Broncos: Alternate Total Under 38 Points (+136)
WAGER: 1 Unit
This is a divisional matchup where both teams are sputtering on offense, and one won’t be able to take advantage of a good defensive draw. These teams will not repeat their 55-point combined showing from Week 4.
Denver ranks last in the league in points per game (14.6) and cannot be expected to truly exploit Las Vegas’ defense even though it allows 25.1 points per game. The Raiders have scored just 20 points in two consecutive games after being shut out, and the Broncos lead the NFL in scoring defense (16.6 points allowed per game).
