We’ve got a potential playoff preview between two likely AFC division winners in the Buffalo Bills (3-1) and Houston Texans (3-1).
Buffalo is coming off a blowout loss to the Ravens, while Houston narrowly escaped with a close win over their division rivals in the Jaguars.
With that in mind, let’s dive into my Bills vs Texas prediction and best bets for this Week 5 tilt.
Bills vs Texans Odds
NFL odds are current as of Thursday, Oct. 3, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Bills (-115) vs Texans (-105)
- Spread: Bills -1 (-110) vs Texans +1 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-108) / Under 47.5 (-112)
Bills vs Texans Prediction
Bills 27, Texans 24
I’m projecting a much better performance from the Bills after they got embarrassed by the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
Josh Allen has played like an MVP candidate this season, ranking 2nd in EPA per play, behind only Commanders’ rookie sensation Jayden Daniels.
We’ve seen the Texans’ defense show some vulnerability at times, specifically in their loss to the Vikings in Week 3, where Sam Darnold shredded them for four touchdowns.
Look for Allen to do something similar in this favorable game environment indoors.
There’s the added motivation that Allen wants to prove to his former teammate Stefon Diggs that the Bills’ offense doesn’t need him to thrive.
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Bills vs Texans Best Bets
Bills -1 (-110)
I already discussed how I like Allen to have a big game against this Texans defense.
Another important factor is how good the Bills have been in pass defense has been. Buffalo ranks 6th in Pass EPA, allowing only 5.51 yards per attempt, which ranks 1st in the NFL.
While Buffalo has been vulnerable on the ground, it’s looking like Joe Mixon is out for another game. Cam Akers has been a major downgrade from Mixon, so the Texans’ running game isn’t as much of a threat.
There’s a reason why the Bills are listed as road favorites here — the market thinks they’re the better team, and I agree.
Go with the Bills as one of my best NFL bets today.
Nico Collins: Under 82.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Nico Collins has established himself as one of the best wideouts in the game, eclipsing 82.5 yards in each of his four games this season.
But I’m fading Collins in this one because of the Bills’ pass defense.
I mentioned how they rank 1st in yards per attempt allowed. We’ve seen them shut down Tyreek Hill (12 yards) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (four yards) this season.
Add in the fact that Tank Dell is back, and perhaps this is the game where C.J. Stroud starts to go to his secondary options instead of Collins.
