We’ve got an epic showdown between two NFL MVP favorites in the AFC Divisional Round when Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (13-5) visit Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (14-4) at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, January 19 at 6:30 p.m. ET.
This is a rematch of Week 4, where the Ravens blew out the Bills in a 35-10 victory on Sunday Night Football. I’m expecting a closer game this time, but Baltimore looks like the right side.
Which team will win this AFC Divisional game? Let’s examine the latest betting odds before diving into my Ravens vs Bills prediction and best bets for the NFL Playoffs.
Ravens vs Bills Odds
NFL odds are current as of Monday, Jan. 13, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Ravens (-115) vs Bills (-105)
- Spread: Ravens -1.5 (+100) vs Bills +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-105) / Under 51.5 (-105)
Ravens vs Bills Prediction
Ravens 27, Bills 21
I’m riding with the Ravens in this Week 4 rematch because this team has addressed their one weakness, which was pass defense.
From Weeks 1-10, the Ravens ranked 30th in Pass EPA on defense. Since Week 11, Baltimore ranks 1st in the same category.
What happened was they benched Marcus Williams, put Ar’Darius Washington at free safety, and used Marlon Humphrey as a full-time slot corner. This find was courtesy of @wayne_bets on X, who is a must-follow for all NFL fans.
These adjustments have clearly patched a major hole for the Ravens, which makes them look like Super Bowl favorites. Just take a look at what this team has done since Week 11:
- W 28-14 vs Steelers
- W 35-10 vs Browns
- W 31-2 at Texans
- W 34-17 vs Steelers
- W 35-14 at Giants
- L 24-19 vs Eagles
- W 30-23 at Chargers
- L 18-16 at Steelers
That’s good for a 6-2 record and +106 point differential.
When you add in the fact that Baltimore already blew out this Bills team coupled with their elite offense (1st in EPA), you can see why I’m on the Ravens here.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Ravens vs Bills Best Bets
Ravens ML (-115)
The Ravens are road favorites here for a good reason — they’re the better team from top to bottom.
We saw Derrick Henry gash this Bills run defense for 199 yards and a touchdown on only 24 carries in Week 4.
Lamar Jackson didn’t have to do much in that game, attempting only 18 passes.
For the Bills to win this game, they’ll have to win a shootout. I don’t see this defense (12th in EPA) having enough to stop this Ravens offense.
The problem with that is Baltimore’s improvements in pass defense — 1st in Pass EPA since Week 11 — is going to make that difficult.
Back Ravens ML as one of your best NFL bets today.
Bills: Under 25.5 Points (-108)
As mentioned above, the Ravens defense has taken it to another level since fixing up their pass defense.
Since Week 11, Baltimore has allowed 23 points or fewer in each of their eight games.
That includes a 24-19 loss to the Eagles, where they limited Jalen Hurts to only 118 passing yards.
Look for the Ravens to slow down Josh Allen and company in this game — 25.5 is simply too high of a bar.
