To kick off Week 9 of the NFL season, the Miami Dolphins are hosting the Baltimore Ravens.
The Dolphins are coming off their best game of the season, beating the Atlanta Falcons 34-10. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was sensational, completing 20 of 26 passes for 205 yards and four touchdowns.
However, now, at home, the Dolphins are 7.5-point underdogs because Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will return to the lineup for the first time since getting injured in Week 4 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Will the Dolphins continue playing well, or will the Ravens be reinvigorated with Jackson back in the lineup?
Below, I’ll examine the TNF best bets for this matchup.
Best Thursday Night Football Prop Bets for Ravens vs Dolphins
All NFL odds used for these TNF player prop bets are current as of Thursday, Oct. 30, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Derrick Henry: Anytime TD (-225) @ Dolphins
Leading off my best bets for Thursday Night Football, I’m leaning on Henry to score a touchdown.
He scored two last week against the Chicago Bears while running 21 times for 71 yards. Now, he’ll face a Dolphins defense that’s allowing 23.5 carries (fifth-most) for 117.62 rushing yards (third-most), and 0.75 rushing touchdowns (tied for seventh-most).
They’re allowing a bunch of production to running backs, and with the Ravens favored by more than a touchdown, the game script will allow for Henry to run early and often and find his way into the end zone, making this one of the TNF prop bets to back, especially as an addition to parlays.
Derrick Henry: Under 6.5 Receiving Yards (-120) @ Dolphins
Next up for my Thursday Night Football prop bets, I’m sticking with Henry, but this time, I’m taking the under on his receiving yards at 6.5.
With Jackson under center, Henry has a team target share of just 5.4%, catching just four of five passes for 36 yards. Overall, this season, his team’s target share is even worse at 5%, catching five of nine passes for 44 yards.
Through seven games, he’s had six receiving yards or less in three games, and he finished with seven and eight yards in two other games.
Essentially, if he catches a pass, there’s a good chance he’ll go over this mark, but I don’t believe he’ll need to be utilized in the passing game at all due to how porous the Dolphins are against the run.
Tanner Conner: Under 1.5 Receptions (+125) vs Ravens
For the last of my best Thursday Night Football props, I’m looking at a Dolphins backup tight end in Conner.
Full disclosure, this one is a bit of a risk. Not only is Waller out, but fellow Dolphins tight end Julian Hill will also be absent.
This season, when Tyreek Hill, Waller, and Hill aren’t on the field, Conner has seen a 15.3% team target share, which is third among all receivers, catching six of nine passes for 56 yards.
However, I’m leaning under because the team promoted Greg Dulcich from the practice squad to the active roster, and, if not for several hamstring issues, Dulcich may be more involved in an offense elsewhere after he caught 33 passes for 411 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie in 2022 with the Denver Broncos across 10 games.
Conner has exactly two catches in two of his last four games, and now, he has legitimate competition with Dulcich for tight end targets.
My Three-Leg TNF Parlay for Ravens vs Dolphins in Week 9 (+525)
If you put the three wagers above into a Same Game Parlay, the odds are +525. This means that if you were to wager $100 on this and win, you’d receive $525.
