The New England Patriots will take on the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 25 (3 p.m. ET/CBS).
It’s a projected low-scoring game with a 42.5-point total, so we need to be mindful of that when choosing our Patriots vs Broncos props.
In this article, I’m going to highlight four of the best AFC Championship Game props for Sunday’s contest.
All NFL odds used for these Patriots vs Broncos player props are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 21, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Patriots vs Broncos Player Props
Rhamondre Stevenson: Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115) @ Broncos
Rhamondre Stevenson has been terrific for the Patriots down the stretch. Since the team’s Week 14 bye, Stevenson has rushed for 402 yards on only 55 carries (7.3 YPC). Over that span, he has 49-plus rushing yards in five of six games.
The veteran running back has been Mike Vrabel’s preferred choice over rookie TreVeyon Henderson throughout the playoffs. Stevenson has out-carried Henderson 26-to-21 while being much more effective.
- Get ready for this matchup with our Patriots vs Broncos predictions.
We just saw James Cook rush for 117 yards on 24 carries against this Broncos defense. With New England listed as 5.5-point favorites, this sets up as a positive game script for Stevenson.
Since the Pats are projected to play with a lead, that means more rushing volume. With that in mind, ride with the over as your NFL pick of the day.
Jarrett Stidham: Under 30.5 Longest Completion (-115) vs Patriots
Jarrett Stidham will make his first NFL start since Jan. 7, 2023, in the AFC Championship Game after Bo Nix suffered a broken ankle in Denver’s Divisional Round win over Buffalo.
That’s bad news against a Patriots defense that is rounding into form right now. In two playoff games, the Patriots limited Justin Herbert to 5.1 yards per attempt and picked off C.J. Stroud four times.
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It’s hard to see Stidham making big plays downfield against this defense, so we’ll fade him by taking under 30.5 longest completion.
The Patriots have held opposing quarterbacks below this number in four of their last five games, making this prop worth a look.
Courtland Sutton: Under 21.5 Longest Reception (-125) vs Patriots
Since we’re fading Stidham, it makes sense to fade a Broncos’ wideout as well. I’ll take Courtland Sutton’s longest reception to go under 21.5 yards.
The veteran wideout will have to contend with Patriots’ top cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who is one of the best in the NFL.
Sutton has gone under this number in five of his last nine games, which isn’t that good of a hit rate, but the real appeal is the lack of chemistry with Stidham, along with a tough matchup.
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Kayshon Boutte: Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-112) @ Broncos
Kayson Boutte has come on strong during New England’s playoff run, putting up 75 and 66 yards in two games so far. It seems like Boutte’s falloff in the second half had to do with injury.
Now healthy, we’re seeing him make a major impact as Drake Maye’s downfield weapon. Boutte made a spectacular touchdown catch against the Texans in the AFC Divisional Round.
With Stefon Diggs dealing with Pat Surtain II, Boutte could be a key factor once again. At only 38.5 yards, this is a low bar to clear.
