The New England Patriots take on the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game in a battle of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the conference.
However, the Broncos will turn to backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham after Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Denver’s thrilling overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills. The biggest question is: can the Broncos beat the Patriots with Stidham instead of Nix?
Let’s dive in to find the answers in our Patriots vs Broncos predictions.
Patriots vs Broncos Odds
All NFL odds used for these Patriots vs Broncos best bets are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 21, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Patriots (-258) vs Broncos (+210)
- Spread: Patriots -5.5 (-105) vs Broncos +5.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-108) / Under 42.5 (-112)
The Patriots come in as relatively heavy favorites for a road game, but this isn’t much of a surprise. Stidham is making his first start since 2023, while the Patriots have MVP favorite Drake Maye under center. The market is emphasizing the quarterback advantage here.
The total is set at 42.5 points, which is below the key number of 43, but it also looks like a fair price. It’s going to be tough for the Broncos to move the ball against a Patriots defense that is rounding into form after shutting down the Chargers and Texans during this postseason run.
Patriots vs Broncos Predictions
Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Broncos 14
I’d be riding with the Patriots even if Nix was playing, as the Broncos are only here due to a few ill-advised turnovers from Josh Allen. With Stidham under center, I don’t give Denver much of a chance in this game.
Maye is playing at such an elite level, leading the NFL in both Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) and Adjusted Expected Points Added per Play (EPA). Simply put, New England has a massive advantage at quarterback with Maye over Stidham.
Additionally, we’ve seen the Patriots’ defense look absolutely dominant since defensive tackle Milton Williams returned to action in Week 18. Williams has been a menace up front, helping this group cause significant problems for both Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud.
With advantages at quarterback and on defense, the Patriots look poised to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2019.
Patriots vs Broncos Best Bets
Patriots -5.5 (-105)
Many feel hesitant to lay 5.5 points on the road in a challenging environment in Denver, but New England is the right side.
Both the Texans (16 points) and Chargers (3 points) were shut down by this Patriots defense. There’s no reason to think that Stidham will fare much better than Herbert or Stroud.
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All we need is a scoreline like 23-17 to hit this bet. With how easily Allen and the Bills moved the ball against this Broncos defense, that looks firmly within reach.
Back the Patriots to win and cover as your NFL pick of the day.
Under 42.5 Total Points (-112)
I feel more comfortable riding with the under because there’s a legitimate chance this game turns into a double-digit Patriots’ victory, with the Broncos struggling to move the ball.
The New England defense is playing its best football of the season, intercepting Stroud four times in the Divisional Round and holding Herbert to 5.1 yards per attempt in the Wild Card Round.
Look for this group to keep it rolling against Stidham and Co. Consider this wager with our top sportsbook promotions for 2026.
