The slate of NFL Christmas games begins with the Dallas Cowboys (6-8) visiting the Washington Commanders (4-11).
While neither team is in the playoff picture, this is still a bitter rivalry game.
The Cowboys have become the dominant team in this rivalry in recent years, winning seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings, including a 44-22 win earlier this season.
Keep reading to find out my Cowboys vs Commanders predictions for the Christmas Day matinee.
Cowboys vs Commanders Odds
All NFL odds used for these Cowboys vs Commanders best bets are current as of Tuesday, Dec. 23, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Cowboys (-305) vs Commanders (+245)
- Spread: Cowboys -6.5 (-115) vs Commanders +6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-115) / Under 50.5 (-105)
Cowboys vs Commanders Predictions
Score Prediction: Cowboys 38, Commanders 20
Something has to give in this game, with Dallas losing three in a row and the Commanders winning just one of their last 10 games.
Both teams have been atrocious defensively this season, which should allow both offenses to thrive.
The caveat is that Washington could be down to third-string quarterback Josh Johnson, who has some experience but was ineffective in relief of Marcus Mariota (hand/quad) last week.
That should allow the Cowboys to win this game comfortably, as they did against the Commanders earlier this season.
Cowboys vs Commanders Best Bets for Christmas 2025
Cowboys -6.5 (-115) @ Commanders
It’s a little hard to back the Cowboys to cover a touchdown on the heels of a three-game losing streak.
However, Washington’s only win over its last 10 games came against the lowly Giants. Six of their nine losses during that stretch came by double digits, with the Dolphins being the only team that failed to score at least 21 points against the Commanders during that stretch.
The Cowboys should get their offense going, and with Johnson at quarterback, the Commanders won’t be able to keep up.
Make this wager with our top sportsbook betting promotions.
Over 50.5 Total Points (-115)
With their high-scoring offense and leaky defense, the Cowboys are the best team in the NFL at hitting the over.
- Sign up for The Game Day Newsletter to get the latest bet tips and sportsbook promos.
After scoring 44 points against the Commanders earlier this season, Dallas has a chance to approach that number again, especially since there is no more pressure to stay alive in the playoff race.
In fairness, there are questions about the Washington offense. But since the Cowboys give up over 30 points per game and the over has hit in five of seven Commanders’ home games, this bet feels safe.
Dak Prescott: 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+163)
With such lucrative odds, this is my NFL pick of the day for Christmas.
Despite only throwing three total touchdowns during the team’s three-game losing streak, Prescott has five games this season with at least three touchdown passes, including the earlier match with the Commanders.
The Washington defense has allowed the third-most passing touchdowns in the league this season, so with the receiving options at his disposal, Prescott has a realistic chance to throw at least three touchdowns on Christmas.
