The second game of the 2025 NFL Thanksgiving Day schedule offers a curious matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Shockingly, the Chiefs enter Week 13 outside of the AFC playoff picture, so they are in a must-win position every week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys still need a minor miracle to get into the playoffs, even after last week’s epic comeback over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Nevertheless, the Cowboys and Chiefs offer a fascinating matchup, so keep reading to check out some NFL Thanksgiving game predictions.
Chiefs vs Cowboys Predictions for Thanksgiving 2025
All NFL odds used for these Chiefs vs Cowboys Thanksgiving best bets are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 25, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cowboys +3.5 (-115)
As long as the spread is more than a field goal, taking the Cowboys and the points is the best way to lead off my Thanksgiving Day NFL picks.
While the Chiefs are coming off an impressive win over the Colts, they are also 1-3 on the road this season, despite being favored in all four games.
Plus, the Cowboys have undeniable momentum, not to mention a much-improved defense, after back-to-back wins.
Even if the Chiefs pull out the win, it’ll be a close game, so take the Cowboys to cover as your NFL pick of the day.
Under 52.5 Total Points (-110)
On paper, the Cowboys still have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. However, they’ve gotten healthy and made some additions at the trade deadline, which is why their last three games have finished with fewer than 50 points.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a top-5 defense that’s allowing just 15.7 points per game over their last six games.
Even with Patrick Mahomes and a potent Dallas offense going head-to-head, this game will be closer to a defensive slugfest than a shootout.
Patrick Mahomes: Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Mahomes running the ball is surprisingly one of the best Thanksgiving Day NFL player props.
He has had success with his legs this season, gaining at least 28 rushing yards in five of his last seven games.
Also, while the Dallas defense has made strides in recent weeks, the Cowboys have struggled against mobile quarterbacks all year.
Jalen Hurts led the Eagles with 33 rushing yards against Dallas last week, with Mahomes set up to replicate that success this week.
George Pickens: Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)
Even if he’s listed as questionable, targeting Pickens is one of the best Thanksgiving NFL bets, as he has accumulated at least six receptions and nine targets in four straight games.
While the Chiefs have a solid defense, they can’t double Pickens and leave CeeDee Lamb one-on-one.
Other teams have faced the same conundrum, which is why Pickens remains a dependable target for prop bets.
Travis Kelce: Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-110)
With Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice both battling injuries, Kelce should be heavily involved against the Cowboys.
While he is not a traditional deep threat, last week’s game against the Colts snapped a streak of four straight games in which Kelce had at least one catch of 21 yards or more.
Given how many big plays the Dallas defense has allowed this season, Kelce is bound to create at least one, especially since he’s likely to be targeted a lot in this game.
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