Sunday’s triple-header of NFL Wild Card games concludes with the New England Patriots (14-3) hosting the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6).
When these teams met late in the 2024 regular season, the Chargers demolished the Patriots 40-7 in New England.
Needless to say, a lot has changed since then, as Drake Maye is now an MVP candidate who led the Pats to the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert is still trying to get over the hump and lead the Chargers to their first playoff win since the 2018 season.
On paper, this looks like a compelling game, so keep reading to get a full breakdown and my Chargers vs Patriots predictions.
Chargers vs Patriots Odds
All NFL odds used for these Chargers vs Patriots best bets are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 7, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Chargers (+160) vs Patriots (-192)
- Spread: Chargers +3.5 (-108) vs Patriots (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-105) / Under 46.5 (-115)
Unsurprisingly, the Patriots are favored at home, although a 3.5-point spread means New England isn’t getting much of a home-field advantage.
Keep in mind that all three of the Patriots’ losses this season came at home.
Meanwhile, the over/under of 46.5 points is perhaps higher than expected, considering both teams held opponents to 20 points or less per game during the regular season.
Chargers vs Patriots Predictions
Score Prediction: Patriots 23, Chargers 20
On paper, the Patriots look like one of the most balanced teams in the league, on top of having one of the best against-the-spread records at 11-5-1.
But keep in mind that New England played just four games against playoff teams, going 2-2, with both losses coming at home.
The Chargers are a little more battle-tested, going 3-3 against teams that made the playoffs. They also have a little more playoff experience, albeit losing in the Wild Card round the last two seasons, whereas this will be the first playoff game for Drake Maye and the first for the franchise since the 2021 season.
Ultimately, the Chargers are about as good a No. 7 seed as you’ll find, so even with New England’s success this season and home-field advantage, this is bound to be a close game that’s decided by a field goal.
Chargers vs Patriots Best Bets
Chargers +3.5 (-109)
If the spread is more than a field goal, the best bet is to take the Chargers and the points.
Los Angeles has held opponents to 20 points or fewer in nine of its last 10 games. It has one of the more underrated defenses in the NFL and won’t make things easy for Drake Maye in his first playoff start.
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While the Patriots scored the second-most points in the league this season, they didn’t face many quality defenses, which will make it hard for them to win this game comfortably.
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Under 46.5 Total Points (-115)
The under is my NFL pick of the day because this total is way too high.
Granted, the Patriots have hit the over in five straight games, doing so 11 times in 17 games this season. But again, they didn’t play many quality defensive teams this season, especially down the stretch.
It’ll be tough for them against the Chargers, who don’t give up a lot of big plays, meaning both teams will need to rely on long drives to score.
Only one of the Chargers’ last eight games has ended with more than 45 total points, and I like that trend to continue.
