The Buffalo Bills won’t have to deal with the Kansas City Chiefs or Baltimore Ravens this time around, but can they get through the Jacksonville Jaguars? That’s who awaits them in the first of three NFL Wild Card games on Sunday (1 p.m. ET/CBS).
Both teams won 12+ games this year, with the Jaguars finishing on an eight-game winning streak and posting an impressive 13-4 record. With Trevor Lawrence as one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL, can the Jags knock off the Bills?
In this article, you’ll read Bills vs Jaguars predictions, including an NFL best bet for the point spread and over/under.
Bills vs Jaguars Odds
All NFL odds used for these Bills vs Jaguars best bets are current as of Tuesday, Jan. 6, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Bills (-118) vs Jaguars (-102)
- Spread: Bills -1.5 (-102) vs Jaguars +1.5 (-118)
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-105) / Under 52.5 (-115)
The Bills are short road favorites here, which isn’t surprising because they have the reigning NFL MVP, Josh Allen, and a team that has gotten so close to the Super Bowl in recent years. The issue here is that the Jags have been scorching hot of late.
The over/under looks high at 52.5, but when you consider how Liam Coen’s offense has been firing on all cylinders in Jacksonville, it starts to make more sense.
Bills vs Jaguars Predictions
Score Prediction: Jaguars 28, Bills 24
This AFC Wild Card game should be another exciting matchup.
The Jags have the edge here because not only are they at home, but they’ve been quite impressive during their eight-game winning streak. Coen has fixed Lawrence at quarterback, resulting in an explosive offense that has put up 30+ points in four of Jacksonville’s last five games.
The biggest issue with the Bills is their lack of talent at wide receiver. They don’t have an alpha that you can lean on when playing from behind. There’s no man-beater here. That puts too much responsibility on Allen’s shoulders.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with the Jaguars as home dogs here.
Bills vs Jaguars Best Bets
Jaguars +1.5 (-118)
In my view, the wrong team is favored in this game.
The Jaguars should be the ones laying the points at home. This team is currently on an eight-game winning streak, which includes impressive double-digit wins over the Broncos and Chargers. Lawrence looks completely comfortable in Coen’s offense, throwing 11 touchdowns with only one interception in his last four games.
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The Bills’ defense isn’t good enough to slow down Lawrence and company. We saw TreVeyon Henderson and the Patriots rush for 200+ yards against Buffalo back in Week 15.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Jags get both Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten going en route to victory, so I’m backing Jacksonville with my NFL pick of the day.
Under 52.5 Total Points (-115)
On the one hand, the Jaguars have been one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL of late.
On the other hand, this still feels a touch too high, especially since we can win with common scorelines like 28-24 and 27-24.
If my take that the Jags will get the running game on track with Etienne and Tuten is correct, that would be good news for under 52.5 because it would keep Allen off the field.
Riding with the under looks like the better play considering the high total. Consider this wager with our top sportsbook promotions for 2026.
