The Buffalo Bills survived the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Wild Card Round, as Josh Allen put the team on his back with an impressive performance. Up next is another tough test against an elite Denver Broncos defense.
This matchup can go either way, but it will be interesting if Allen can overcome a well-rested Broncos squad coming off the bye.
Below, you’ll find our Bills vs Broncos predictions as we dive into the NFL Divisional Round games.
Bills vs Broncos Odds
All NFL odds used for these Bills vs Broncos best bets are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 14, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Bills (-108) vs Broncos (-112)
- Spread: Bills +1.5 (-120) vs Broncos -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-112) / Under 45.5 (-108)
The Bills opened as short road favorites, but the line has moved to the Broncos’ side. That makes sense because of home-field advantage and Denver’s superior defense.
The total looks about right at 45.5 points, since we’ve seen the Broncos get into shootouts at home at times, notably against the Packers and Jaguars.
Bills vs Broncos Predictions
Score Prediction: Bills 26, Broncos 23
Allen is a man on a mission right now.
That game against the Jaguars was a sight to behold. The superstar quarterback completed 28-of-35 passes for 273 yards in what was a nearly flawless performance.
The Broncos are the No. 1 seed for a reason, but it’s partly due to an easy schedule. Denver won several close games, including some against bottom-feeders like the Commanders, Raiders, and Giants.
The Bills have the clear edge under center with Allen over Bo Nix, who will be making his second career playoff start, which is one of the reasons why I’m riding with Buffalo in this spot.
Bills vs Broncos Best Bets
Bills Moneyline (-108)
The Bills now have impressive wins over the Jaguars and Patriots on their resume. Allen is playing like the best quarterback in the world right now.
- Sign up for The Game Day Newsletter to get the latest bet tips and sportsbook promos.
Meanwhile, the Broncos haven’t really had a tough test since Week 16, when they lost to Jacksonville. Since then, Denver has faced the Chiefs with third-stringer Chris Oladokun, the Chargers with backup Trey Lance, and then enjoyed its first-round bye.
There’s a good chance that we’re going to see a rusty Broncos team here, which is another reason to roll with the Bills as our NFL pick of the day.
Over 45.5 Total Points (-112)
I know that the Broncos have a great defense, but we’ve seen them get into some shootouts at home this season:
- Week 16: L 34-20 vs Jaguars
- Week 15: W 34-26 vs Packers
- Week 8: W 44-24 vs Cowboys
- Week 7: W 33-32 vs Giants
We’ve seen Trevor Lawrence (279 yards, 3 TD) and Jordan Love (276 yards, 1 TD) be able to move the ball against this defense in recent weeks.
At 45.5 points, all we need is a 27-20 scoreline to get this over, which looks firmly attainable.
Consider this wager with our top sportsbook promotions for 2026.
