The College Football Playoff semifinals feature a rematch as Big Ten heavyweights Oregon and Indiana meet Friday (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in the Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Indiana handed Oregon its only loss this season, 30-20 on Oct. 11 in Eugene. But oddsmakers are projecting the rematch to be close, with the Hoosiers favored by just 3.5 points.
What does that mean for bettors? For a look at how things may play out, here are my top Oregon vs Indiana predictions.
Oregon vs Indiana Odds
All NCAAF odds used for these Oregon vs Indiana best bets are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 7, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Oregon (+150) vs Indiana (-180)
- Spread: Oregon +3.5 (-112) vs Indiana -3.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-108) / Under 47.5 (-112)
Oregon vs Indiana Predictions
Score Prediction: Indiana 28, Oregon 20
Top-ranked Indiana (14-0) supplanted defending national champion Ohio State as a +130 favorite in the CFP National Championship odds with its 38-3 demolition of Alabama in the Cotton Bowl.
Statistically, the unbeaten Hoosiers check all the boxes, ranking top five in both offensive and defensive scoring and first in average margin of victory (28.2).
At times, Oregon (13-1) has been just as dominant. The Ducks coasted past James Madison 51-34 in the first round before bullying Texas Tech 23-0 to set up a rematch with the Hoosiers.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, a projected top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, struggled in the first matchup, throwing for just 186 yards and two interceptions. He was also sacked a season-high six times.
It’s not far-fetched to think he’ll be better this time around. If so, the Ducks will have a chance to get their revenge. But I’m not buying it. The Hoosiers are simply too good.
Oregon vs Indiana Best Bets
Indiana -3.5 (-108)
Indiana doesn’t have any obvious flaws.
The roster is rich with talent and experience, especially quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
The Heisman Trophy winner is also a worthy No. 1 overall pick, and he was nearly flawless against Alabama, completing 14-of-16 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns.
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The Hoosiers controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in the first matchup and wore down the Ducks late, holding them to a season-low 267 yards.
Oregon is better now, and the way it shut down Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl was phenomenal. But at this point, how can anyone making College Football Playoff predictions bet against the Hoosiers?
Curt Cignetti’s team is 9-5 against the spread this season and 18-9 since he arrived in Bloomington. I’m taking Indiana -3.5 for my college football pick of the day.
Over 47.5 Total Points (-108)
Rematches are always difficult to gauge, and Oregon’s defense has improved since that loss in Eugene. The Ducks have allowed more than 16 points just twice in their last eight games, running their overall record against the Over/Under to 7-7.
At the same time, with a spot in the CFP title game at stake, it is hard to envision anyone slowing down Mendoza and the Hoosiers.
While I do not anticipate a shootout, I think both teams will score just enough to push this slightly past the line to cash the over.
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