The first College Football Playoff semifinal kicks off Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), with 10th-seeded Miami taking on sixth-seeded Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.
The Hurricanes opened as slight favorites after upsetting defending national champion Ohio State. But the Rebels have rallied around their new coach in the wake of Lane Kiffin’s departure and promise to be a tough out.
For more on the matchup, here are my top Miami vs Ole Miss predictions.
Miami vs Ole Miss Odds
All NCAAF odds used for these Miami vs Ole Miss best bets are current as of Tuesday, Jan. 6, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Miami (-166) vs Ole Miss (+140)
- Spread: Miami -3.5 (-105) vs Ole Miss +3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-105) / Under 52.5 (-115)
Miami vs Ole Miss Predictions
Score Prediction: Miami 24, Ole Miss 20
Miami’s Cotton Bowl victory over Ohio State was the biggest upset in the CFP’s 12-year history. The Hurricanes, 9.5-point underdogs, used a ferocious defense and some timely plays from quarterback Carson Beck to knock off the defending national champions 24-14.
Opposite them is Ole Miss (13-1), which pulled off a surprise of its own by beating SEC rival Georgia 39-34 as a 6.5-point underdog. Trinidad Chambliss threw for 362 yards and two touchdowns, while Pete Golding’s defense did just enough to hold Georgia in check and defy most College Football Playoff predictions.
On the surface, this game shapes up as a more controlled, defensive-minded contest than the Rebels are used to.
Chambliss, the SEC Newcomer of the Year, isn’t the type to get flustered. But the Hurricanes (12-2) should be able to limit explosive plays and keep Chambliss from flipping this matchup in the Rebels’ favor.
Miami vs Ole Miss Best Bets
Miami -3.5 (-105)
Ole Miss has been a machine offensively, scoring 30 or more points in eight straight games dating back to its only loss: 43-35 to Georgia on Oct. 18. The Rebels, though, have not faced a defense like the one they will see in Glendale.
Led up front by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr., who combined for three of Miami’s five sacks against Ohio State, the Hurricanes have allowed the fourth-fewest points per game in FBS (13.3). They also rank first in sacks (46), tied for ninth in takeaways (25), and 10th in yards allowed per game (285.1).
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Chambliss’ production, energy, and big-play abilities will be a lot for the Hurricanes to handle, but defense travels, and Mario Cristobal’s team will make enough stops to end Ole Miss’ feel-good run.
As such, Miami -3.5 is my college football pick of the day.
Under 52.5 Total Points (-115)
Sure, Ole Miss’ offense is explosive. The Rebels scored 41 and 39 points in their first two CFP games and are averaging 37.6 points per game on the season, good for 10th in FBS.
Still, this number seems high, especially since four of the last five Miami games have gone under the total.
While I don’t expect the Hurricanes to shut down Chambliss and the high-powered Rebels completely, they’ll make sure this does not become a shootout.
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