SEC heavyweights Alabama (10-3) and Oklahoma (10-2) kick off the College Football Playoff Friday (8 p.m. ET) at Memorial Stadium.
It’s shaping up to be one of the most competitive first-round games, with the Crimson Tide billed as slight 1.5-point favorites.
With that in mind, let’s tackle my Alabama vs Oklahoma predictions.
Alabama vs Oklahoma Odds
All NCAAF odds used for these Alabama vs Oklahoma best bets are current as of Wednesday, Dec. 17, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Alabama (-112) vs Oklahoma (-108)
- Spread: Alabama -1.5 (-105) vs Oklahoma +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-108) / Under 40.5 (-112)
Alabama vs Oklahoma Predictions
Score Prediction: Alabama 20, Oklahoma 17
This is a rematch between traditional powerhouses after Oklahoma edged Alabama 23-21 at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Nov. 15. The Crimson Tide outgained the Sooners 406-212, but Alabama committed three turnovers to Oklahoma’s zero and missed a field goal.
Alabama’s place in the 12-team field has been hotly debated. Many have argued that, with three losses and a blowout defeat in the SEC Championship, the Crimson Tide don’t belong. But, as we make our College Football Playoff predictions, that’s moot now.
Kalen DeBoer’s team is exactly where it’s supposed to be. Here is its chance to prove why.
Alabama vs Oklahoma Best Bets
Alabama ML (-112)
Alabama put on an ugly performance against Georgia its last time out. The Crimson Tide finished with -3 rushing yards and only 209 total yards. Ty Simpson, once a Heisman Trophy contender, posted a season-worst 19.9 QBR.
The Crimson Tide haven’t cracked 30 points against a power-conference opponent since Oct. 18, which could be a problem against Oklahoma’s seventh-ranked scoring defense.
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At the same time, the Sooners have problems of their own. John Mateer hasn’t looked right for weeks, and the offense ranks 88th nationally in yards per game.
I’m tempted to pick Oklahoma in a slight upset, but just think how different the Alabama game might’ve been if not for the turnovers. If Simpson protects the ball, the Crimson Tide will win.
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Under 40.5 Total Points (-112)
Alabama games have gone under the point total in five straight and eight of their last 10.
Nobody, however, has accomplished that feat more frequently than Oklahoma. Ten of the Sooners’ 12 games have gone under the total, with the exception of their 34-26 loss to Ole Miss on Oct. 25 and 33-27 win over Tennessee on Nov. 1.
The projected total of 40.5 is the lowest of any first-round game, and with good reason.
I’m taking the Under for my college football pick of the day.
