The penultimate game of Week 17 comes to a head as the San Francisco 49ers host the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football.
Both teams have a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed, with the Bears owning an 11.6% chance and the 49ers sitting at 31.8%.
Heading into this game, there are injury concerns on both sides. Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze (foot) is out, but it looks like Luther Burden III (ankle) could play. For the 49ers, tight end George Kittle (ankle) and wideout Ricky Pearsall (ankle/knee) are both questionable.
With that in mind, check out my five best bets for Sunday Night Football, including the point spread, total, and three player props.
Best Sunday Night Football Bets for Bears vs 49ers
All NFL odds used for these SNF best bets are current as of Friday, Dec. 26, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bears +3 (-102) @ 49ers
The 49ers are coming off a massive win over the Indianapolis Colts, but I’m backing the Bears to cover on the road.
As you’ll see with my NFL pick of the day related to the over/under, I think this game could be lower-scoring than expected.
Both teams have notable injuries that could limit their scoring potential, resulting in a closely contested game.
Under 52.5 Total Points (-110)
Going further regarding the scoring, let’s look at both quarterbacks.
The Bears primarily play Cover-2 and Cover-3. Against those coverages, Brock Purdy has completed 72% of his passes (67 of 93) and thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions.
Furthermore, against those coverages without Kittle on the field, he has just one touchdown pass, two interceptions, and a completion rate of just 60.9%.
As for Caleb Williams, he’ll see Cover-3 more than anything else against the 49ers, and when he’s faced it, he’s completed under 60% of his passes and has thrown eight touchdowns. Without Odunze on the field against Cover-3, Williams has only two touchdown passes.
Both teams should score 20+ points, but this game will fall short of the over.
Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-230)
Leading off my best Sunday Night Football prop bets, I must take McCaffrey to score.
McCaffrey leads the 49ers in target share at 23.7%. However, when Kittle isn’t on the field, that goes up to 26%. So, not only is McCaffrey seeing the most targets on the team regardless of who’s on the field, but the rate goes up when Kittle is out.
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And, of course, he’s a running back who has handled 76.1% of the 49ers’ RB carries this season.
McCaffrey has scored in five straight games and will continue to do so, thanks to his endless touches.
Kyle Monangai: Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-118)
Monangai had just nine carries last week in the overtime win over the Green Bay Packers, but he ran for 50 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Before that, he had 11 carries or more in five straight games.
Fellow running back D’Andre Swift is playing, but he’s been dealing with some soft tissue injuries recently.
I expect the Chicago ground game to be a factor against a 49ers defense that’s been fairly squishy against the run this season, allowing close to 21 carries per game and 4.37 yards per carry.
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Caleb Williams: Under 1.5 Passing TDs (+101)
This prop is definitely worth a shot at plus-money odds.
Williams has finished with one touchdown pass or fewer in eight of 15 games this season. He has thrown two in each of his last three games, but the second last week came in overtime.
Also, as noted above, he has just eight touchdown passes all season against Cover-3, and has thrown multiple touchdown passes against it only three times this season.
Without Odunze on the field, he’s never had more than one passing touchdown in a single game versus Cover-3.
He will face other coverages, of course, and the total is relatively high, but there’s enough data to make me feel comfortable taking a chance on this for the last of my SNF prop bets.
