There are a couple of somewhat-surprising point spreads on the Week 16 slate of NFL action, and that includes the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Baltimore Ravens (7-7) and New England Patriots (11-3).
The Patriots are underdogs following their 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills, a game they led 24-7 at halftime. They’ll visit the Baltimore Ravens, who pitched a 24-0 shutout against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Below, you’ll find my five best bets for Sunday Night Football in Week 16.
Best Sunday Night Football Bets for Patriots vs Ravens
All NFL odds used for these SNF best bets are current as of Friday, Dec. 19, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patriots +3 (-115) @ Ravens
The Patriots are coming off a Week 15 loss after their bye week, but they still scored 31 points.
Meanwhile, the Ravens did shut out the Bengals, but their offense managed only 17 points, as seven were the result of a pick-six.
I expect both teams to emphasize running the ball, resulting in a low-scoring game.
This is one of those games where a game-winning field goal could absolutely come into play, so I’ll take the points with the Patriots as my NFL pick of the day.
Under 48.5 Total Points (-115)
I don’t trust either quarterback much in this spot.
New England’s Drake Maye has thrown one passing touchdown or fewer in three of his last four games.
Before last week, when he tossed two passing touchdowns, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson had only two passing touchdowns between Weeks 10 and 14.
The Patriots ran on 49.02% of their plays last week, while the Ravens ran on 60%, so the clock should keep moving.
The final score will be something around 23-20.
Lamar Jackson: Under 0.5 INTs (-152)
The Patriots play a variety of coverages, having called Cover-1, Cover-2, Cover-3, and Cover-4 on at least 84 opposing quarterback dropbacks or more this season.
Against these coverages, Jackson has just five interceptions on 269 dropbacks and 213 pass attempts.
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While he threw an interception last week against Cover-4, if you go back and look at it, it was off the hands of his receiver, so I don’t put that on Jackson.
He’ll stay out of the interception column in this game, making it one of my three best Sunday Night Football prop bets.
Drake Maye: Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-124)
As mentioned, Maye has had one passing touchdown or fewer in three of his last four games.
The Ravens predominantly play Cover-1 and Cover-3. Against those looks, he’s thrown multiple touchdown passes just three times all season.
Plus, Baltimore’s defense has allowed multiple passing touchdowns just once since Week 5.
Derrick Henry: Anytime TD (-125)
To round out my top SNF prop bets, I’m backing Henry to score.
The Ravens offense will run through Henry in this game. On just 11 carries last week, he had 100 yards. He could’ve certainly run for more, but given that the game was out of reach, it made sense to hold him back.
While Henry hasn’t scored in his last two games, that should change against a Patriots defense that has allowed four touchdowns to running backs (three rushing and one receiving) over its previous two games.
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