To close out the Sunday slate of Week 14 NFL action, we have the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans.
While we may be looking at SNF best bets here, this game does have some playoff implications. For example, if the Chiefs lose, the Los Angeles Chargers win, and the Denver Broncos win or tie, the Chiefs are eliminated from winning the AFC West.
With that in mind, check out my five best bets for Sunday Night Football below, including the spread, total, and three props.
Best Sunday Night Football Bets for Texans vs Chiefs
All NFL odds used for these SNF best bets are current as of Friday, Dec. 5, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texans +3.5 (-115)
The Texans’ defence primarily plays Cover-3. Against Cover-3, Mahomes has just two touchdown passes and one interception.
Mahomes has 22 touchdowns this season, meaning just about 9% of his touchdown passes have come against the defense that the Texans most often play.
Not only that, but the Texans allow just 16.5 points and 174 passing yards per game. These rank first and fourth, respectively, heading into Week 14.
Given the strength of its defense, I’ll take Houston and the points as my NFL pick of the day.
Under 41.5 Total Points (-105)
The Texans’ offense hasn’t exactly been lighting the league on fire, averaging 21.9 points (21st), 107.7 rushing yards (23rd), and 219.1 passing yards (16th) per game.
If you couple their below-average offense with Mahomes’ statistics against Cover-3 defense, I think we could be in for a 20-17 type of game.
I’ll lean under.
Travis Kelce Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Texans allow just 39.42 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
This season, Kelce leads the team in target share at 18.7%, but he’s one of four players with a target share of 14.1% or higher.
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The Chiefs pass the ball around too much for me to feel comfortable taking Kelce over a line that exceeds what the Texans allow on a game-by-game basis.
This play is among my best Sunday Night Football prop bets.
Nick Chubb: 6+ Rush Attempts (-169)
Next up in my series of SNF prop bets, I’m looking at Chubb.
Fellow Texans running back Woody Marks didn’t practice Wednesday, but logged a limited session on Thursday, pointing toward him playing.
Still, considering the injury, and even if he plays, I’ll say Chubb has at least six carries.
This season, Marks is the leader of the timeshare, receiving 50.6% of the carries to Chubbs’ 43%. However, Chubb has been more efficient, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, while Marks is at 3.6.
Even with Marks on the field, Chubb has had at least six carries in nine games, including in each of the last two.
Patrick Mahomes: Under 4.5 Rush Attempts (-156)
Mahomes hasn’t had five rush attempts or more in a game since Oct. 12.
Opposing quarterbacks average just 2.75 carries per game against the Texans.
Only one quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, has had five carries or more against the Texans this season.
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