To close out the Sunday slate of Week 13, we have the Washington Commanders hosting the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos have won eight games in a row, while the Commanders have lost six in a row.
These are two teams headed in different directions, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some SNF best bets.
Check out my five favorites below.
Best Sunday Night Football Bets for Broncos vs Commanders
All NFL odds used for these SNF best bets are current as of Friday, Nov. 28, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Commanders +5.5 (-102)
Leading off my best bets for Sunday Night Football is the Commanders +5.5.
Heading into this game, neither starting quarterback, Marcus Mariota nor Bo Nix, is impressive against their opponents’ primary coverages.
The Broncos primarily play Cover-1 and Cover-3, and the Commanders typically play Cover-3. Against those defenses, Nix and Mariota have thrown a combined nine interceptions.
Couple that with the Broncos averaging just 16.7 points over their last three games, and I’ll take the points with Washington.
Under 43.5 Total Points (-115)
This game has all the makings of a low-scoring game.
The Broncos’ offense hasn’t been clicking as noted above, and their defense is second in the NFL in pressures (181), which will create problems for Mariota.
I’m expecting a 20-17 game with some turnovers, which makes the under my NFL pick of the day.
Troy Franklin: 40+ Receiving Yards (-145)
For the first of my three top SNF prop bets, I’m taking a look at Franklin.
When facing Cover-3, Nix doesn’t target anyone more than Franklin. Against that coverage, he has caught 23 passes on 36 targets for 354 yards and a touchdown.
Looking over his game logs, he has had 40 receiving yards or more against just Cover-3 three times and 30 yards or more six times.
Not only that, but Franklin leads the Broncos in target share at 22.1%.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
Over the last three weeks, Croskey-Merritt has received 42.7% of the Commanders’ running back carries.
However, he’s run 32 times for 96 yards, averaging three yards per carry. Only 3.1% of those carries went for 10 yards, so there hasn’t been any explosiveness, either.
The Broncos are 27th in yards allowed per game to running backs at 76.27, and Croskey-Merritt has been inefficient and on the wrong side of a running back-by-committee approach.
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Marcus Mariota: 1+ Interceptions (-143)
This season, Mariota has completed 92 of 140 passes for 1,065 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions.
When facing Cover-1 and Cover-3, he’s completed 57 of 88 passes for 616 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions.
So, 80% of his interceptions have come against the coverages the Broncos primarily play, and he’ll have to deal with the second-best defense pressure-wise.
An interception is coming, and this is one of my best Sunday Night Football prop bets.
