To close out the Sunday slate of Week 12 NFL action, we have a battle between two NFC teams as the Los Angeles Rams host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Rams are coming off a thrilling win over the Seattle Seahawks, while the Buccaneers lost on the road to the Buffalo Bills despite scoring 32 points.
Continue reading below to see my top five SNF best bets.
Best Sunday Night Football Bets for Buccaneers vs Rams
All NFL odds used for these SNF best bets are current as of Thursday, Nov. 20, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Buccaneers +6.5 (-105) @ Rams
As far as these best bets for Sunday Night Football go, picking the spread was the hardest of them all.
That said, when I look at these quarterbacks, they both perform extremely well against the coverages each other play: Baker Mayfield has completed 66.4% of his passes and has two touchdowns against Cover-3 (what the Rams most often play), and Matthew Stafford has completed 73% of his passes and thrown four touchdowns against Cover-3 (what the Buccaneers most often play).
With that, I’ll lean toward the Buccaneers at +6.5, but I’m not completely convinced.
Under 49.5 Total Points (-108)
While Mayfield and Stafford are playing well against the opposing team’s coverage, you’ll notice they haven’t exactly thrown many touchdowns.
For context, Mayfield has 17 touchdown passes and Stafford has 27. Of those combined 44 touchdowns, they’ve thrown just six against Cover-3.
The passing attacks may not be as explosive as you’d expect.
Baker Mayfield: Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-132)
Leading off my best Sunday Night Football prop bets, I’m looking at Mayfield.
I discussed his performance against Cover-3 this season above, and while the completion percentage is solid, the touchdown production just hasn’t been there.
Sure, the Rams won’t play Cover-3 100% of the time, so let’s look at the top three coverages the Rams play, which include Cover-1, Cover-2, and Cover-3.
Against those, Mayfield still has fewer than half of the passing touchdowns he’s thrown this season.
Take the under as your NFL pick of the day.
Matthew Stafford: Under 2.5 Passing TDs (-196)
No, the odds aren’t great here at -196, but the proof was laid out above: Versus Cover-3, Stafford has thrown just four of his 27 touchdowns.
Not only that, but the Buccaneers are allowing just 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. They’ve allowed two or fewer touchdown passes in all but two games this season.
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Davante Adams: Over 4.5 Receptions (-134)
Closing out my SNF prop bets is Adams.
Over the Rams’ last three games, Adams leads in target share at 25%, just edging out Puka Nacua at 23.9%. Over that stretch, he’s caught 12 of 23 passes for 138 yards.
He had a terrible Week 11, catching just one pass for one yard, but before that, he had five catches or more in four of five games.
