To close out the Sunday slate in Week 10 of the NFL season, the Los Angeles Chargers are hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers head into this game coming off a massive win at home over the Indianapolis Colts, while the Chargers took down the Tennessee Titans on the road and have won their last two games. Coincidentally, their last loss came at home to the Colts.
Below, you’ll find my five best bets for Sunday Night Football, including a pick for the spread, the total, and three player props.
Best Sunday Night Football Bets for Steelers vs Chargers
All NFL odds used for these SNF best bets are current as of Friday, Nov. 7, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chargers -3 (-105) vs Steelers
At home, the Chargers are just 1-2-1 against the spread, but I think they right the ship in this one.
Los Angeles ranks sixth in the NFL in passing yards per game at 250.6. This bodes well for its offense, as the Steelers’ defense has been dreadful against the pass.
Pittsburgh has allowed teams to throw for 278.3 yards per game (most in the NFL), and over the last three games, they’ve been especially bad (333.7 pass yards allowed per outing), the most over that span by more than 43 yards.
Take the Chargers at home as your NFL pick of the day.
Steelers @ Chargers: Under 45.5 Points (-115)
While the Steelers’ pass defense has been dreadful lately and the Chargers should score, I’m not entirely sure how the Steelers’ offense will do in this game.
The Chargers allow the third-fewest passing yards per game at 177.1. I know Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out quickly, but I believe this will allow for some short completions that will keep the clock moving.
As for run defense, both have been inside the top 12 in terms of fewest rushing yards allowed per game, with the Chargers at 80.7 and the Steelers at 97.
Look for a lower-scoring game.
Calvin Austin III: Under 2.5 Receptions (+119)
This season, Austin has a 12.4% team target share, catching 19 of 29 passes. He runs a route on 78.5% of Rodgers’ dropbacks, the second-most on the team.
However, he isn’t utilized often enough for me not to take the +119 odds. He’s finished with two catches or fewer in two of six games.
Additionally, the Chargers primarily play Cover-3, and this season, Austin III has just five catches against that coverage.
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Aaron Rodgers: Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Rodgers has finished with one rushing yard or more in five of eight games.
On Sunday, he’s taking on a Chargers defense that blitzes at the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL. Almost all of Rodgers’ rushing attempts have come when he isn’t blitzed, so look for him to scramble for a quick yard or so when LA is in coverage.
This is one of my best Sunday Night Football prop bets.
Justin Herbert: Under 23.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
To close out my SNF prop bets, I’m sticking with quarterback rushing yards and taking the Under on Herbert at 23.5.
He’s finished with 24 rushing yards or more in seven of nine games, but this won’t be the spot.
The Steelers are extremely vulnerable against the pass, and we have to consider how often they blitz.
Pittsburgh blitzes at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and of Herbert’s 46 carries, only eight have come when blitzed.
Look for the Chargers’ quarterback to sit in the pocket and pick the Steelers apart through the air.
