It’s Week 18 of the NFL season. Not only does that mean that teams are vying for division titles or playoff seeding, but there are also incentives to consider when wagering on NFL player props.
Most prefer to look for overs on these incentives, but there’s no edge there anymore. Sportsbooks have adjusted the lines to bake this into the number. That’s why I’m taking the opposite approach here.
On this page, you’ll find inflated NFL incentive props for you to target the under. We’ll also be targeting inflated lines on player milestones.
All NFL odds used for these Week 18 player prop bets are current as of Friday, Jan. 2, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best NFL Incentive Props for Week 18
Tony Pollard: Under 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114) @ Jaguars
Tony Pollard is 66 rushing yards away from getting $250,000 in incentives. The veteran running back has been excellent lately, rushing for 85, 102, 104, and 161 yards.
With the Titans just playing out the year, it would make sense that they would try to let Pollard get to this incentive.
However, I’m riding with the Under here. It’s a tough matchup against the Jaguars, who rank 4th in Rush EPA this season. This is a defense allowing only 3.87 yards per carry (4th).
Since the Jaguars have an outside chance at securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC, this game still matters to them.
The Titans are 13-point underdogs in this game, so it’s a projected negative game script for Pollard. With Tennessee likely playing from behind, that means less rushing volume.
Considering these circumstances, we’ll fade Pollard in our NFL pick of the day.
Tetairoa McMillan: Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-112) @ Buccaneers
Sportsbooks have been slow to release incentive props, so we’re going to focus on a player milestone in our next under.
I’m going with Tetairoa McMillan Under 60.5 receiving yards because this is a run-heavy offense, so it’s a high bar for the rookie. McMillan needs 71 yards to get to 1,000 receiving yards, but that doesn’t matter in a game that will decide the NFC South.
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McMillan has gone Under this number in six of his last eight games, including only five yards vs the Seahawks last week.
The talented first-year wideout doesn’t look 100 percent right now, which is why I’m still going Under in the matchup vs the Bucs, even though he had 73 yards against them in Week 16.
Christian McCaffrey: Under 5.5 Receptions (-150) vs Seahawks
My last NFL player prop for Week 18 is another milestone pick, fading Christian McCaffrey by taking Under 5.5 receptions.
This line is juiced at (-150), but that’s because it’s a high bar, as CMC has 6+ receptions in only one of his last four games.
McCaffrey needs 4+ catches to get to 100+ for the season, but with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line, that’s not a big factor here. With that in mind, we’re going to fade CMC with this high number.
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