It’s a question we’ve asked ourselves countless times as college basketball fans: Can anyone beat Duke? Houston will be looking to do so when it takes on the ACC champions this Saturday, April 5, at 8:49 p.m. ET.
The Blue Devils have rolled on through to the Final Four behind a string of phenomenal performances from freshman Cooper Flagg. His 16 points helped guide Duke to an 85-65 victory over 2-seed Alabama on Saturday, making it look easy against a team that had just hung 113 points on BYU in the Sweet 16.
The Cougars, thanks to a top-ranked defense, have as good a chance as anybody to upset Duke. Houston held 2-seed Tennessee to just 15 first-half points in Sunday’s 69-50 win, dismantling an offense that had averaged 74 points per game through the first three rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Houston vs Duke Odds
Unsurprisingly, Duke is a sizable 5.5-point favorite over Houston, per the latest NCAAB odds. The Over/Under comes in at a meager 136.5 points, but the Blue Devils and Cougars rank fourth and first, respectively, in defensive efficiency.
Houston vs Duke Prediction
Duke 64, Houston 56
This is a veteran Houston team that’s seen a lot of things. Its top five scorers are all juniors and seniors, led by fifth-year guard LJ Cryer. Duke, on the other hand, is largely made up of underclassmen, with freshmen Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Khaman Maluach starting alongside Tyrese Proctor and Sion James.
Much like last year’s Connecticut Huskies, the Blue Devils are elite on both ends of the floor. In fact, Duke ranks first and fourth, respectively, in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings — the exact marks UConn posted in its championship-winning 2024 campaign.
That’s not to say the Cougars aren’t a two-way force — they place No. 10 and No. 1 by those same metrics — but whereas this Duke offense has looked unstoppable regardless of opponent, the same can’t necessarily be said of Houston.
This game will be decided on the margins, and unfortunately for the Cougars, the Blue Devils are the more well-rounded team of the two. I fully expect Duke to get the job done and advance to the national championship.
Houston vs Duke Best Bets
Duke -5.5 (-105) vs Houston
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I’d be much happier to bet this line if it was, say, Duke -4 or -4.5, but so be it. The Blue Devils certainly have what it takes to win this one by a few possessions or more.
Flagg has proven to be a matchup nightmare, and he consistently finds ways to make an impact on both ends of the floor. He’s looked largely unbothered so far, and while Houston will provide a significant challenge, I trust Jon Scheyer to put him in position to succeed — or at least to demand enough attention to benefit his teammates.
One other factor worth considering, if you’re on the fence: Duke is 25-13 (65.8%) against the spread, while Houston is 20-17-1 (54.1%). I have to lean toward the Blue Devils with my best college basketball bet today.
Under 136.5 Points (-112)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Under feels like the only option for this game, even at this exceptionally low total. These may well be the two best defensive teams in the nation, and both prefer to slow the tempo, working for efficient shots later in the possession rather than hurling up as many looks as possible.
- Check out our Florida vs Auburn Predictions for more March Madness betting tips.
When Duke and Houston met in last year’s Sweet 16, the Blue Devils came out on top, 54-51. This is a vastly different roster than the one Scheyer was working with in 2024, but the precedent is set for this contest to be won on defense.
