When it comes to winning fantasy football leagues, avoiding potential busts is just as important as finding breakout players. If you miss on your early round picks, it could absolutely sink your season.
On this page, I’ll include several players that I’m avoiding. Some feel like minor disappointments at current ADP, while others are full-blown fades. There are only three full fades on this list: Matthew Stafford, Alvin Kamara, and T.J. Hockenson.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at my picks for fantasy football draft busts for the 2024 NFL season.
Fantasy Football Draft Busts
| Position | Player | Stategy |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Joe Burrow | Target if falls past ADP |
| QB | Brock Purdy | Target if falls past ADP |
| QB | Matthew Stafford | Fade at all costs |
| RB | Jonathan Taylor | Target if falls past ADP |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | Target if falls past ADP |
| RB | Alvin Kamara | Fade at all costs |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | Target if falls past ADP |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | Target if falls past ADP |
| WR | Keenan Allen | Target if falls past ADP |
| TE | Travis Kelce | Target if falls past ADP |
| TE | Brock Bowers | Target if falls past ADP |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | Fade at all costs |
If you’re interested in seeing the entire picture, check out our 2024 fantasy football rankings.
Fantasy QB Busts 2024
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow is back to full health, but his wrist issue makes him a bit of a risk for re-injury.
It also doesn’t help that Burrow doesn’t add much on the ground with a career-high of 257 rushing yards.
While Burrow should still provide solid production, he feels like more of a floor pick without much upside at his current Underdog ADP of QB8.
If I’m looking at this tier of quarterbacks, I’m just taking whoever goes later between Burrow and Dak Prescott. I would rather pay up for Jalen Hurts/Josh Allen or go for Lamar Jackson/Patrick Mahomes/C.J. Stroud.
I just don’t see a truly massive passing season from Burrow like I do with Stroud, so for that reason, I’m usually avoiding the Bengals quarterback in drafts.
Find out where Joe Burrow lands in our quarterback power rankings.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
If I’m waiting until this ADP to take my quarterback, I’d prefer to just go with one of the rookies in Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams.
While Brock Purdy has been terrific while surrounded with an elite supporting cast, I just can’t bet on him repeating his absurd efficiency, which included an absurd 9.6 yards per attempt.
Purdy will need an uptick in passing volume to offset a decrease in efficiency, but I’m not sure that’s coming with Christian McCaffrey in the backfield.
While Purdy has a nice floor, I just don’t see much upside at his current QB12 ADP on Underdog.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford is a much better real-life quarterback than fantasy. The Rams love to run the ball in the red zone, which is why Stafford only threw for 24 touchdowns last season.
Add in the fact that Stafford is an absolute zero in the running game — he rushed for 65 yards last year — and you can see why he’s an avoid at QB19.
If I’m looking for a quarterback at this price, I’d rather swing for the fences on Will Levis.
Fantasy RB Busts 2024
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Don’t get me wrong, Jonathan Taylor is a fantastic player with a high floor. It’s just that there’s a bit of a capped ceiling here with Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
Not only do mobile quarterbacks target their running backs at lower rates than pocket passers, but A-Rich is likely to steal some touchdowns when the Colts get in the red zone.
Taylor would need to have absurd efficiency to enter the conversation of top 3 running backs in fantasy.
I would rather take one of the wide receivers like Nico Collins at this price, especially knowing that I can get an undervalued bell-cow like Kyren Williams in the third round.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
This is the exact same situation as Jonathan Taylor, as Saquon Barkley’s ceiling isn’t as high as other running backs at this ADP because Jalen Hurts will limit receiving production while taking away touchdowns.
The Eagles are also a team with Super Bowl aspirations, stacked with playmakers. It’s not like Barkley needs to carry the load for this offense.
For that reason, we could see Philly scale back Barkley’s usage to keep him fresh for the playoffs.
I’m not saying that he won’t dominate touches, I’m just saying that we can expect fewer than what we saw with the Giants.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara is a running back with declining efficiency, dependent on receiving volume that may decrease in 2024.
Kamara has played in a Sean Payton offense throughout his career. This is a scheme that emphasizes running back targets, a stat which Payton’s Broncos led last season.
While Payton has been gone from New Orleans for the last two years, Pete Carmichael (Payton’s former OC) has called the plays. In other words, even though Payton wasn’t there, the team still used his scheme.
But now Klint Kubiak is the offensive coordinator, so there’s a risk that Kamara will have fewer targets than usual.
Add in one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and you can see why Kamara is an easy fade.
Fantasy WR Busts 2024
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson is a generational talent, but I don’t want to have to worry about erratic quarterback play from my first-round pick.
The fact is, it’s a huge drop-off from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy.
While Jefferson should see heavy volume with T.J. Hockenson recovering from a torn ACL, we just saw Davante Adams get 175 targets but still disappoint in fantasy.
There is just too much talent in the first round for me to take a risk on Jefferson.
Check out where Jefferson finds himself in our wide receiver power rankings.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman Jr. is coming off a career year, but it’s time to look elsewhere at his current cost.
Anthony Richardson is healthy, which means that we’re likely to see more rushing volume this season.
It also doesn’t help that Richardson is completely unproven as a passer.
Add in Josh Downs’ continued development and another intriguing pass-catcher in rookie Adonai Mitchell and you can see why Pittman’s current WR24 price tag feels rich.
I’d only look at the Colts’ WR1 if he fell past his current ADP.
Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
Keenan Allen had a huge year with the Chargers last season, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 and now joining a new team.
It’s also worth noting that Allen’s stats were inflated in what was a broken offense. Poor offensive line play and limited options forced Justin Herbert to continuously pepper Allen with underneath targets. A good example of this is in their Sunday Night Football game vs the Ravens — check it out.
Now, Allen joins a crowded WR room that includes DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.
While I’m high on Caleb Williams in his rookie season, I’m a bit skeptical on Allen. I’d rather just wait a bit and target Rome Odunze.
Fantasy TE Busts 2024
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
While Travis Kelce has a reduced cost this year, I’m still looking elsewhere.
The Chiefs made significant upgrades at wide receiver, signing Hollywood Brown and using a first-rounder on Xavier Worthy. Add in emerging star Rashee Rice and it’s suddenly a much more crowded room.
In other words, the Chiefs no longer need to depend on Kelce. This is a team trying for their third straight Super Bowl, so they can limit Kelce’s workload to keep him fresh for the playoffs.
I’d rather target the elite pair of young tight ends in Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride.
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
Brock Bowers is one of the best tight end prospects in NFL history. But we need to learn from Kyle Pitts and the Falcons — we can’t always just bet on talent.
The Raiders want to be a run-heavy offense under Antonio Pierce and Luke Getsy. This team also has a good tight end in Michael Mayer, so we could see some 2-TE sets quite often.
Add in the fact that Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers remain on the team and you can see why there’s limited upside for Bowers in Year 1.
Bowers is currently being drafted ahead of David Njoku, who dominated down the stretch last year — that’s too rich for me.
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
T.J. Hockenson is coming back from a torn ACL and will likely miss at least the first month of the season.
Add in potentially erratic quarterback play from Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy makes taking Hockenson difficult.
It’s hard to see the star tight end back to top form while coming back from a significant knee injury.
Hockenson is currently going as TE16, ahead of upside targets like Luke Musgrave and Noah Fant. I’d prefer to steer clear of this situation.
What is a Fantasy Football Bust Player?
A Fantasy Football bust is typically a player who does not live up to expectations for that Fantasy Football season. It could be a player who was drafted highly and failed to produce relative to that draft slot, or it could also mean a player who was expected to have a strong role in their offense/defense, yet had a smaller role.
It’s important not to live in absolutes in Fantasy Football. Just because a player might be a bust, does not mean they are a bad player, but maybe they just did not measure up to the expectations we as Fantasy Football players put on them to have that season.
What Are the Signs That a Fantasy Football Player Will Bust?
There aren’t any concrete signs usually that a player will have a down year, but you can look for context clues around.
Such examples could include a new offensive/defensive scheme that doesn’t quite suit that player, a new coach or coordinator that calls plays differently, or even some bad news from training camp or preseason about the player that makes you wonder whether they can sustain that projected role.
You have to be fluid with your draft strategy if a player you like has negative vibes around him.
