Welcome to the Divisional Round.
We’re officially at the point of the season where our game options are going to start dwindling by the week. However, we have four amazing matchups to sift through this weekend — with two games I’m especially targeting.
With a trip to the Conference Championship games on the line, this weekend is setting up to be even wilder than last week.
Let’s dig in and find some of the best player prop bets to make for the Divisional Round.
All NFL gameday odds for NFL Divisional Round player prop bets are current as of 12 p.m. ET on Friday, January 21.
Titans vs Bengals Player Props
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Ja’Marr Chase‘s regular-season production has him positioned to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and he hasn’t slowed down as he’s entered the playoffs. Chase has topped 100 receiving yards in three of his last four games and has seen double-digit targets in three of those four as well.
He also gets to face a Titans team that is stout against the run but abysmal against the pass. They’ve allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts this year.
With the Bengals likely having to rely on the pass this weekend, Chase is well-positioned to put up 77-plus receiving yards.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make for NFL Divisional Round
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Ryan Tannehill UNDER 237.5 Passing Yards (+105) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Ryan Tannehill has had a strange season. The Titans have dealt with a myriad of injuries around him, and his numbers have taken a hit because of it.
He’ll get some weapons back this weekend in the form of A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry, but the return of Henry doesn’t mean great things for Tannehill’s passing numbers.
While he’ll get to face a bad Bengals secondary that has allowed almost 264 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, Tannehill has only thrown for more than 237.5 yards once in his last six games.
With the Titans likely trying to get Henry more involved this week, Tannehill probably won’t see enough attempts to get him to this total.
Packers vs 49ers Player Props
Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 228.5 Passing Yards (+105) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Jimmy Garoppolo has become an easy target amongst NFL fans, but the guy still produces.
Aside from last week’s game where he only threw the ball 25 times, Jimmy G has gone over 290 yards in four of his last six games.
He’ll face a tough Packers defense this week, but one that still allowed over 230 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season.
With the 49ers likely playing from behind and having to throw the ball more than last week, I like the Over in this spot.
Eli Mitchell UNDER 80.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Eli Mitchell had an underrated regular season, but he’s in a tight spot in regards to this prop this weekend.
The first problem he faces is that the Packers have a stout run defense that limited opposing running backs to just 76.6 rushing yards per game this season (sixth-best in the league).
The second problem he faces is that the 49ers have (effectively) been working Deebo Samuel into their rushing attack, and he’s taken at least seven carries away from Mitchell in each of San Francisco’s last three games, including 10 last week.
The third problem he faces is that the 49ers are likely going to be playing from behind and having to rely on their passing attack. Combine all those factors together, and I have a tough time seeing how Mitchell tops 80.5 rushing yards this weekend.
After dismantling the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wild Card Round, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look poised for a strong outing against the Los Angeles Rams. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Buccaneers vs Rams Player Props
Tom Brady OVER 293.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I don’t love the high total here, but I’m never going to go against the GOAT in the playoffs. Especially after he threw for over 5,300 passing yards during the regular season.
Tom Brady is going to have to throw the ball quite a bit this weekend to keep up with the Rams’ high-powered offense, but he should be able to move the ball against their lackluster secondary like he did in Week 3 when he threw for 432 yards.
Odell Beckham Jr. OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
It’s not easy to figure out where the Rams are going to distribute targets outside of Cooper Kupp, but Odell Beckham Jr. seems to be earning Matthew Stafford‘s trust.
OBJ has seen 24 targets over the Rams’ last four games and is coming off a four-reception, 54-yard game against the Cardinals last week.
With the Rams likely having to rely on their passing attack to keep up with Tom Brady this weekend, Beckham Jr. should see plenty of opportunities to top this relatively low total against a Buccaneers secondary that ranked in the bottom-half of the league in terms of yardage allowed to opposing receivers each week.
Chiefs vs Bills Player Props
Gabriel Davis OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Gabriel Davis has come on in a big way. Over his last five games, he’s averaged seven targets and 49.5 receiving yards per game and has topped 30.5 receiving yards in each.
With the Bills likely having to throw the ball to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this weekend, Davis should have plenty of opportunities to top this low total against a Kansas City secondary that finished in the middle of the pack in terms of yardage allowed to opposing wide receivers this season.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
Patrick Mahomes isn’t exactly Lamar Jackson in terms of looking to run, but the man knows how to pick his spots and can gobble up yards in a hurry.
Mahomes has run the ball at least three times in six of his last eight games and has topped 24.5 rushing yards in each of his last three heading into this week.
I’m going to drop my confidence down to a half-unit here because quarterback rushing props are always a bit of a dart throw, but Mahomes could easily top this total on one long scramble.
Check out more of our NFL Divisional Round Betting Tips
Top NFL Divisional Round Player Props
Aaron Rodgers OVER 261.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
Aaron Rodgers is probably two weeks away from winning another MVP trophy after throwing for 4,115 passing yards this season.
He’s topped this total in six of his past eight games (it would have been seven of eight if he didn’t leave Week 18’s meaningless game early) and will likely come out throwing this weekend as the Packers look to avoid the 49ers’ stout run defense.
Their pass defense isn’t horrible either, but the Packers are going to have to do their damage through the air if they want to host the NFC Championship game.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 281.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
I’ll be honest in saying this total is higher than I’d like it to be. And I don’t love Mahomes’ matchup here either.
Then again, it’s Patrick Mahomes.
Despite struggling through a strange up-and-down season, Mahomes still threw for over 4,800 yards, including three games over 400 yards in his last nine.
With the Chiefs banged-up at running back, they’re going to have to rely on Mahomes’ arm to carry them to the AFC Championship game. And I think he’s going to have to go over 300 passing yards to do that.
Nick’s 2021-22 NFL Playoffs Props Betting Record: 2-7, -4.5 Units
