We took some shots last week. Always take your shots.
Some hit, and some missed. Although all told, we finished up Week 5 at .500. Meh.
On the positive side, we nailed the Bengals-Packers game. Never mind all those mixed field goals, our prop bets were already won by then. On the negative side, the Steelers-Broncos game wasn’t particularly kind to the ol’ wallet. Although I liked the Steelers, I didn’t love all the points scored.
As they say, onward and upward.
When it comes to game props, I’m going to keep swinging. I’m also going to keep experimenting with different types of wagers. And although Week 6 isn’t exactly overflowing with high-profile games, we have plenty of opportunities, many at plus money, to make cash.
Let’s dive in. Please note that all NFL Week 6 odds and lines are current as of 3 PM EST on Friday, October 15.
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NFL Week 6 Best Prop Bets
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions
First, an admission.
Dan Campbell, amid a sea of losses, is doing a fine job. The coach of the Detroit Lions was emotional after his team’s latest disappointing loss, which is easy to understand. And although the Lions are 0-5, they’re 3-2 against the spread and playing largely competitive games.
Cincinnati is coming off its own disappointing defeat against the Packers, a game that featured a slew of missed field goals from both teams. Joe Burrow wasn’t perfect, although he did often find rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase with regularity. Chase, by the way, is already a star.
While some will see the two teams playing along with the records attached and assume blowouts, that won’t be me. The Lions are likely to once again be competitive.
Detroit Lions Over 9.5 First Half Points (-135) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Jared Goff hasn’t been perfect. That is putting it lightly. Although the schedule early on, which has featured some difficult games, hasn’t been kind, coming home and playing this team at this time should help.
I like the value in this quite a bit.
Detroit Lions Over 2.5 Touchdowns (+120) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
I’m doubling down, in a sense, on my bet above. I need the Lions to score, and I believe it will.
While I’m not expecting a 33-point output like the one we saw in Week 1, Detroit will be competitive in this game.
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns seem to play in one of the most exciting games of the week every week, which says a lot about how far this franchise has come over the past few years.
Yes, they lost last week, that happens against Justin Herbert. But I still loved what I saw from the offense, especially the two-headed running attack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
Arizona, meanwhile, is finding new ways to win games. The Cardinals’ 17-10 win over San Francisco, in many ways, was a delightful turn of events. The offense will be fine with Kyler Murray powering the ship. But if the defense can play consistently like that, Arizona can go places.
Although the Cardinals are unbeaten and 4-1 ATS, they are still an underdog. While I love the momentum, I understand why.
Cleveland Browns Over 26.5 Points (-120) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
While Arizona’s defense is clearly better, I need more to be fully convinced that this unit can slow down an offense with this many weapons.
Playing the game in Cleveland will also impact this effort, and I think this game features a deluge of points.
Over 9.5 First Quarter Points (-120) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
I’ll lean into the theme above further. While the Browns should do well individually, this should be far different than the game the Cardinals played last week.
These offenses move quickly and can deliver explosive plays. I believe the scoring starts early.
The Cleveland Browns have been getting plenty of offensive production from their running back duo of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
The Cowboys’ offense is a great deal of fun. Full stop.
As long as Dak Prescott stays healthy, anything is possible for a team with two great running backs, two great wideouts, and an emerging tight end. Oh, and the defense is young, very active, and vastly improved.
Against the Giants, that full arsenal was on display to the tune of 44 points. And in the past three weeks, Dallas has scored 121 overall.
But New England feels like an interesting spot. Sure, the Patriots struggled against the Texans. But playing at home certainly feels like it will help rookie QB Mac Jones. Although I feel like the game will be closer than expected, I’m just not certain if the Pats can keep up.
Dallas Cowboys Race to 20 Points (-150) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Let’s dabble. At this point, Dallas appears to have one of the top three offenses in the NFL. The weapons, as referenced above, should still deliver as a whole.
I expect Dallas to start quickly and apply pressure on both sides.
Dallas Cowboys First to Score (-140) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Well, let’s hope the coin flip goes our way. More than that, however, I like the balance of the Cowboys and expect that pressure to come early.
Regardless of the first possession, this offense should be a matchup nightmare for a defense that just struggled with the Texans.
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
I don’t normally make noises when I watch football games.
Normally, I watch peacefully. Well, at least in my eyes.
But when Josh Allen uncorked some of his throws against Kansas City, I couldn’t help myself. I practically jumped out of my skin. The Bills delivered an emphatic statement on the road against a team that has, at least up until recently, felt like the team to beat in the NFL.
After losing to the Jets, the Titans had a bounce-back win against Jacksonville. I’m not sure how much that tells us, although Derrick Henry and his three touchdowns certainly looked and felt very normal. It was also significant considering the injuries to Tennessee’s receiving core.
This feels like a bit of a sleepy spot for the Bills. At the very least, I expect Tennessee to compete.
Over 6 Touchdowns (-135) on DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Shootout. Plain and simple.
That’s what I am seeing here. Emotionally, I think Buffalo put a ton into its game against the Chiefs. Also, Patrick Mahomes left a lot of points on the board with mistakes.
Buffalo will at least score four times. The Titans are good for at least three. Fun game.
Tennessee Titans Over 10.5 First Half Points (+105) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
While Kansas City couldn’t offer up much on the ground, Henry will be an entirely different obstacle. I like the value of this bet and the possibility of the Titans scoring two touchdowns in the first 30 minutes.
I’m predicting a shootout, and it has to start somewhere.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 6 Prop Bets! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 6 Best Bets and NFL Week 6 Parlay Picks.
