Just as predicted, the Houston Astros pounced on Lance Lynn early and eventually defeated the Chicago White Sox 6-1 in Thursday afternoon’s series opener. With the Astros up one game, they’ll need to win just two more games in the best-of-five series to advance to the ALCS.
The Astros had a history of smacking Lynn around throughout his career but with Lucas Giolito on the mound for the White Sox in Game 2, the Astros might have some trouble scoring runs. On the other hand, all of the talk in April was about the White Sox beating up on lefties. While they haven’t been nearly as good against lefties as of late, there might be some value on the road team.
Let’s dig in to our White Sox vs Astros Game 2 predictions and best bets. Please note that all odds are current as of Friday, October 8.
White Sox vs Astros ALDS Game 2 Prediction
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros, October 8, 2:07 PM EST on MLBN
Probable Starting Pitchers:
- Lucas Giolito, White Sox (11-9, 3.53 ERA)
- Framber Valdez, Astros (11-6, 3.14 ERA)
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With a left-hander, Framber Valdez, on the mound for the Astros, the White Sox figure to send out an all right-handed lineup. The offense hasn’t been nearly as good against lefties as it was to begin the season, but there’s still reason to believe the White Sox can put up some runs.
At the top of the order, the White Sox have Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Jose Abreu, all of whom have been able to get on base at a very high rate over the last month against left-handed pitching. However, as a whole, the White Sox lineup has struggled to put the ball in play against lefties, which is a bit concerning. Chicago hitters have struck out over 21 percent of the time, with five batters striking out 29 percent or more, in the last 30 days against southpaws.
Ironically enough, Valdez has struggled much more against left-handed batters than right-handed batters of late, allowing a .430 wOBA and ISO of .417 against the last 30 lefties he’s faced. Meanwhile, righties have averaged a .250 wOBA and ISO of .076 against Valdez over their last 74 plate appearances.
On the other side, Lucas Giolito will get the ball in Game 2 for the White Sox. In the last 30 days, his xFIP has been high at 4.47 percent. However, he’s striking out over 28 percent of batters and walking under seven percent of batters in that same time frame. Giolito isn’t going to induce a high amount of grounders, but he should limit line drives and hard contact.
Meanwhile, the White Sox have three players who have homered against Valdez in their careers, with Anderson, Yoan Moncada and Andrew Vaughn all taking the lefty yard in the past. Each of them will be in the lineup for the White Sox today.
White Sox vs Astros ALDS Game 2 Pick: White Sox 4, Astros 2
White Sox slugger Tim Anderson will look to jumpstart the Chicago offense in Game 2 of the ALDS. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
White Sox vs Astros ALDS Game 2 Best Bets
Best Bet: White Sox Moneyline (+105) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I’m going with the underdog as the best bet today. As outlined above, the White Sox profile much better offensively than the Astros in this game. While Valdez has been very solid against right-handed hitting in the last 30 days, there’s reason to believe the White Sox can do damage, just based off how they’ve handled left-handed pitching over the last couple of years.
If Valdez is off his game, the walks will start to pile up and that will give Chicago more opportunity to score runs with runners on base.
Best Bet: First Five Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-130) at Unibet
Wager: 1.30 Units
Each lineup has limited options when it comes to production. The White Sox will like their chances with the top of the order, but after that it’s anyone’s guess how the bottom of the order will fare. Meanwhile, the Astros have been hitting more line drives and less ground balls, but Giolito has held Houston hitters to a combined .140 batting average over 88 at-bats in his career. Only Michael Brantley has much success against the White Sox right-hander, posting a .500 average in 12 at-bats. This game should go under in the first five innings with these two pitchers on the mound.
- Read our full White Sox vs Astros ALDS Predictions & Best Bets.
Best Bet: Framber Valdez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
The White Sox have been a boom-or-bust team throughout the season. Chicago has five guys in the lineup that have struck out over 29 percent of the time against lefties in the last 30 days. On the other hand, they have four batters that strikeout less than 13.5 percent of the time against lefties.
Valdez has struggled accumulating strikeouts as of late, averaging a 21.2 percent rate over the last 30 days. In 56 combined at-bats against the Astros’ Game 2 starter, the White Sox lineup has struck out just six times, with no player striking out more than once. In the postseason, when pitchers are more likely to get a quick hook, I love this under on Valdez.
